Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
3 November 2026
Ballot measures 2026
144 statewide and local measures in 39 states with a market on Polymarket or Kalshi. Each figure is the probability the measure passes, on the TruthIndex™ where it can be calculated.
Expected to pass91rated Lean, Likely or Safe Yes
Expected to fail18rated Lean, Likely or Safe No
Toss-ups18between 40% and 60%
Widest venue gap8.5 ptsColorado: Proposition 135 (underage transgender surgeries ban)
How to read this chart
The bar holds every ballot measure, grouped by rating. Measures expected to pass (Yes ahead) are on the left, and measures expected to fail (No ahead) are on the right. Toss-ups, where Yes has a 40% to 60% chance, are in the middle. Each block's width shows how many measures have that rating, and the key below gives each count.
More in Methodology- Safe Yes 16
- Likely Yes 43
- Lean Yes 32
- Toss-up 18
- Lean No 7
- Likely No 10
- Safe No 1
- No usable price 17
Between 35% and 65%
Closest to call
I-194MontanaToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Kalshi 49.5%
Amendment 82ColoradoToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Kalshi 49.0%
Proposition 5 (recall election reform)CaliforniaToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Polymarket 46.5%
State Question 847OklahomaToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Kalshi 48.5%
Initiative No. IL26-001WashingtonToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Kalshi 48.0%
State Question 845OklahomaToss-up
TruthIndex™
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Kalshi 47.5%
39 states
Measures by state
144 of 144
Alabama4 measures112
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 1 | 73.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 73.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 4.8K | ||
| Amendment 2 | 66.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 66.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 8.1K | ||
| Amendment 3 | 95.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 95.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 12.9K | ||
| Amendment 4 | 77.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 77.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 |
Alaska2 measures11
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballot Measure 2 (repeal ranked choice voting) | 38.9% | Lean No | 38.0% | 41.0% | 3.0 pts | – | +0.4 | 4.2K | ||
| Ballot Measure 3 | 82.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 82.0% | – | – | −4.0 | 8.7K |
Arizona9 measures12
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCR 2003 (transgender school and athletic access) | 60.5% Polymarket only |
Lean Yes | 60.5% | – | – | – | −1.5 | 1.8K | ||
| Proposition 141 | – | – | 90.5% | – | – | – | 6.1K | |||
| Proposition 142 | – | – | 79.5% | – | – | – | 277 | |||
| Proposition 144 | 68.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 68.0% | – | – | −3.0 | 5.0K | ||
| Proposition 316 | – | – | 89.5% | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| Proposition 317 (drug cartels) | – | 70.5% | 41.5% | – | – | – | 11.3K | |||
| Proposition 318 | – | – | 63.0% | – | – | – | 2.0K | |||
| Proposition 319 (traffic cameras) | 84.5% Polymarket only |
Likely Yes | 84.5% | 87.5% | – | – | +3.2 | 8.8K | ||
| Proposition 320 | – | – | 42.0% | – | – | – | 2.8K |
Arkansas4 measures22
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Only Voting Amendment | 96.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 96.0% | – | – | +1.0 | 11.2K | ||
| Economic Development Districts Amendment | 76.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 76.0% | – | – | +1.0 | 5.8K | ||
| Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment | 94.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 94.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 14.3K | ||
| Water Infrastructure Bond Question | 88.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 88.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 14.1K |
California15 measures11213
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop 40 wealth tax defeats Props 41 and 42 (compound) | 13.5% Polymarket only |
Likely No | 13.5% | – | – | – | 0.0 | 1.3K | ||
| Proposition 1 (affordable housing bond) | – | 58.0% | 66.0% | – | – | – | 3.1K | |||
| Proposition 2 (rainy day fund) | 77.0% implied |
Likely Yes | 71.0% | – | – | – | – | 1.3K | ||
| Proposition 3 (high earner permanent tax) | – | 78.5% | 90.0% | – | – | – | 5.9K | |||
| Proposition 4 (public campaign financing) | 45.0% implied |
Toss-up | 46.0% | – | – | – | – | 548 | ||
| Proposition 5 (recall election reform) | 49.0% implied |
Toss-up | 46.5% | – | – | – | – | 2.3K | ||
| Proposition 37 (homebuying loan program) | 73.0% implied |
Lean Yes | 56.5% | – | – | – | – | 5.7K | ||
| Proposition 38 (immunology research bond) | – | 57.5% | 60.5% | – | – | – | 8.3K | |||
| Proposition 39 | 22.0% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 22.0% | – | – | −4.0 | 4.0K | ||
| Proposition 41 (tax spend audit) | – | 39.5% | 58.0% | – | – | – | 1.9K | |||
| Proposition 42 (retroactive tax prohibition) | – | 50.0% | 75.0% | – | – | – | 2.5K | |||
| Proposition 43 (higher local tax vote threshold) | – | 40.5% | 27.0% | – | – | – | 3.9K | |||
| Proposition 44 (clinic funding) | 23.0% implied |
Likely No | 27.0% | – | – | – | – | 5.9K | ||
| Proposition 45 (expedited environmental review) | – | 38.0% | 52.0% | – | – | – | 5.4K | |||
| Voter ID initiative | 26.2% | Lean No | 27.0% | 26.0% | 1.0 pts | – | −15.5 | 40.9K |
Colorado14 measures1841
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 81 | 43.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 43.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 1.1K | ||
| Amendment 82 | 49.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 49.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 4.8K | ||
| Amendment 83 | 62.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 62.5% | – | – | +0.5 | 37 | ||
| Amendment 84 | 67.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 67.5% | – | – | +0.5 | 36 | ||
| Amendment 85 | 72.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 72.0% | – | – | +0.5 | 14 | ||
| Amendment 86 | 59.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 59.5% | – | – | +0.5 | 11 | ||
| Amendment 87 | 22.0% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 22.0% | – | – | +2.0 | 8.2K | ||
| Proposition 132 | 74.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 74.0% | – | – | +0.5 | 54 | ||
| Proposition 133 (life sentences for child sex traffickers) | 69.7% | Lean Yes | 69.5% | 71.0% | 1.5 pts | – | +1.5 | 11.8K | ||
| Proposition 134 (transgender school sports access) | 61.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | 51.5% | 61.0% | – | – | +6.0 | 2.6K | ||
| Proposition 135 (underage transgender surgeries ban) | 66.5% | Lean Yes | 67.0% | 58.5% | 8.5 pts | – | +3.7 | 968 | ||
| Proposition 136 | 81.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 81.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 840 | ||
| Proposition 137 | 65.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 65.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 7 | ||
| Proposition NN | 53.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 53.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 2.4K |
Florida3 measures21
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 1 | 69.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 69.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 325 | ||
| Amendment 2 | 67.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 67.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 9.8K | ||
| Amendment 3 (Save Our Homes property tax) | 40.8% | Toss-up | 40.5% | 41.5% | 1.0 pts | – | +0.6 | 45.4K |
Georgia3 measures21
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9-1-1 Fund Amendment | 82.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 82.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 9.0K | ||
| Acre Limit Amendment | 88.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 88.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 36 | ||
| Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment | 70.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 70.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 3.4K |
Hawaii2 measures2
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Authorize RISE Bonds Amendment | 76.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 76.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 200 | ||
| Increase Time for Senate to Act on Judicial Appointments Amendment | 76.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 76.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 |
Idaho3 measures11
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drug Legalization Authority Amendment | – | – | 44.0% | – | – | – | 11.7K | |||
| English as Official State Language Amendment | 90.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 90.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 9.5K | ||
| Proposition 1 (Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act) | 11.5% Kalshi only |
Likely No | 19.0% | 11.5% | – | – | −37.0 | 33.1K |
Indiana2 measures2
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Question 1 | 85.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 85.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 6.5K | ||
| Public Question 2 | 79.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 79.5% | – | – | −2.5 | 6.1K |
Iowa1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax | 35.0% Kalshi only |
Lean No | – | 35.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 18.7K |
Kansas1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote | 90.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 90.0% | – | – | −3.5 | 6.8K |
Kentucky1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons | 93.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 93.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 6.0K |
Louisiana10 measures3421
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disabled Veteran Spouse Tax Exemption | 81.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 81.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 2.4K | ||
| Foreign Adversary Expropriation | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 1.0K | ||
| Gubernatorial Term Limits | 70.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 70.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 50 | ||
| Post-Conviction Bail | 70.5% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 70.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 63 | ||
| Private Water Line Funding | 61.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 61.0% | – | – | −0.5 | 5.0K | ||
| Property Tax Millage | 55.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 55.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 4.9K | ||
| Rehabilitated Blighted Property Tax Exemption Amendment | 40.0% Kalshi only |
Lean No | – | 40.0% | – | – | −0.5 | 6.5K | ||
| Retirement Debt Funding | 53.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 53.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 2.9K | ||
| Senior Property Tax Exemption Amendment | 81.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 81.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 1.3K | ||
| Senior Tax Freeze Income-Limit | 70.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 70.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 50 |
Maryland3 measures21
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Question 1 | 76.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 76.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Question 2 | 77.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 77.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 4.4K | ||
| Question 3 (redistricting requirements) | 66.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | 46.0% | 66.0% | – | – | +9.5 | 1.2K |
Massachusetts9 measures15111
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Question 1 | 90.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 90.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 1.7K | ||
| Question 2 | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 4 | ||
| Question 3 (top-two primary) | 38.2% | Lean No | 39.5% | 35.5% | 4.0 pts | – | +8.2 | 2.9K | ||
| Question 4 | 89.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 89.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 795 | ||
| Question 5 | 40.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 40.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 420 | ||
| Question 6 | 86.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 86.0% | – | – | −0.5 | 216 | ||
| Question 7 | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 14 | ||
| Question 8 | 7.0% Kalshi only |
Safe No | – | 7.0% | – | – | −2.0 | 403 | ||
| Question 9 | 81.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 81.5% | – | – | +1.0 | 262 |
Minnesota1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitutional Amendment | 90.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 90.0% | – | – | +0.5 | 2.9K |
Missouri4 measures111
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 7 | 24.5% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 24.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 4.2K | ||
| Amendment 8 | 71.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 71.0% | – | – | +1.5 | 148 | ||
| Congressional Map Referendum | – | 25.5% | – | – | – | – | 95 | |||
| Missouri Amendment 3 (abortion and gender transition) | 54.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 54.0% | – | – | −2.0 | 8.6K |
Montana3 measures111
Nebraska4 measures12
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairness for Girls Constitutional Amendment | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 2.7K | ||
| Nebraska vote to extend legislative term limits to 12 years | – | – | 20.0% | – | – | – | 0 | |||
| Online Sports Wagering Authorization Constitutional Amendment | 64.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 64.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 73 | ||
| Online Sports Wagering Regulation Initiative | 66.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 66.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 239 |
Nevada2 measures11
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada vote to require photo ID and mail-voter verification | 90.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 90.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 10 | ||
| Question 6 (abortion rights) | 95.6% | Safe Yes | 99.0% | 94.3% | 4.6 pts | – | −1.1 | 1.1K |
New Hampshire1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Register of Probate Amendment | 39.5% Kalshi only |
Lean No | – | 39.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 5.8K |
New Mexico7 measures2131
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher Education Bond | 84.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 84.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Legislative Salaries Amendment | 42.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 42.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 2.3K | ||
| Library Bond | 92.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 92.0% | – | – | +2.5 | 4.1K | ||
| Pocket Veto Amendment | 71.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 71.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 371 | ||
| Regents Selection Amendment | 73.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 73.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 275 | ||
| School Election Dates Amendment | 70.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 70.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Senior Citizen Facilities Bond | 95.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 95.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 3.6K |
North Carolina3 measures3
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax Rate Cap Amendment | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 203 | ||
| Property Tax Levy Limit Amendment | 81.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 81.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 495 | ||
| Voter Identification Amendment | 83.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 83.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 |
North Dakota2 measures11
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitutional Measure 1 | 16.0% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 16.0% | – | – | +0.5 | 4.9K | ||
| Constitutional Measure 2 | 57.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 57.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 2 |
Ohio1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio vote to constitutionalize in-person voter ID | 93.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 93.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 1.1K |
Oklahoma2 measures2
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Question 845 | 47.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 47.5% | – | – | −1.0 | 4.9K | ||
| State Question 847 | 48.5% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 48.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 95 |
Rhode Island5 measures5
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic & Infrastructure Bond | 87.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 87.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 1.5K | ||
| Environment & Water Bond | 89.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 89.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 1.5K | ||
| Higher Education Bond | 86.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 86.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 1.6K | ||
| Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond | 83.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 83.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 8.5K | ||
| Housing & Homeownership Bond | 87.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 87.0% | – | – | −1.5 | 1.4K |
South Dakota4 measures112
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment I | 19.5% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 19.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 8 | ||
| Amendment J | 93.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 93.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 2.8K | ||
| Amendment K | 80.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 80.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Amendment L | 16.5% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 16.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 874 |
Tennessee3 measures3
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 1 | 88.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 88.5% | – | – | −1.5 | 211 | ||
| Amendment 2 | 84.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 84.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 3.1K | ||
| Amendment 3 | 88.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 88.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 3.0K |
Texas1 measure
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League City: police use of Flock cameras (local) | – | 75.5% | – | – | – | – | 453 |
Utah2 measures2
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% Vote for Tax-Raising Initiatives | 65.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 65.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 3.6K | ||
| Constitutional Amendment Publication | 73.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 73.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 0 |
Vermont2 measures2
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposal 3 | 88.5% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 88.5% | – | – | −2.0 | 6.3K | ||
| Proposal 4 | 86.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 86.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 1.5K |
Virginia3 measures21
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Question 1 (reproductive freedom) | 89.5% | Likely Yes | 89.5% | 91.3% | 1.8 pts | – | −1.3 | 8.9K | ||
| Question 2 | 93.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 93.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 0 | ||
| Question 3 | 95.5% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 95.5% | – | – | 0.0 | 5.9K |
Washington3 measures21
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initiative IL26-638 (transgender school sports access) | 44.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | 54.0% | 44.0% | – | – | +0.3 | 2.1K | ||
| Initiative No. IL26-001 | 48.0% Kalshi only |
Toss-up | – | 48.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 905 | ||
| Initiative No. IP26-645 | 19.5% Kalshi only |
Likely No | – | 19.5% | – | – | −0.5 | 52 |
West Virginia1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| citizenship requirement for voters | 95.0% Kalshi only |
Safe Yes | – | 95.0% | – | – | −1.5 | 4.5K |
Wisconsin3 measures12
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment | 82.0% Kalshi only |
Likely Yes | – | 82.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 3.0K | ||
| Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment | 69.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 69.0% | – | – | −1.0 | 383 | ||
| Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment | 61.0% Kalshi only |
Lean Yes | – | 61.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 471 |
Wyoming1 measure1
| Measure | Chance it passes | Rating | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value | 29.0% Kalshi only |
Lean No | – | 29.0% | – | – | 0.0 | 8.0K |
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET · Volume combines Polymarket USD and Kalshi contracts · Most traded: Florida: Amendment 3 (Save Our Homes property tax), 45.4K