Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Alaska: Ballot Measure 2 (repeal ranked choice voting)

38.8% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Lean No

Polymarket: 38.0%
Kalshi: 41.0%
Spread: 3.0 pts
24h: −0.4
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	38.8%		38.0%	41.0%	3.0 pts	−0.4

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$693 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 37.0% / ask 39.0% · $1.8K within 5 pts

Alaska Ballot Measure 2 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would eliminate the top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections in Alaska, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Alaska statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Alaska, including the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.5K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 39.0% / ask 43.0% · $643 within 5 pts

If Ballot Measure 2 passes in Alaska, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi