US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Alaska Governor.
Cook also recently moved three states from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," reflecting movement toward the Democratic candidate. They are Nebraska (Republican Gov. Jim Pillen vs. Democratic former state Sen.
Ayotte
Kreiss-TomkinsWilsonWirthWith less than 20 days until the November 3 general election, President Donald Trump has endorsed Republican Bernadette Wilson in Alaska's gubernatorial race.
Independent journalism and community voices, broadcasting since 1993
Kreiss-TomkinsAlaska’s lone Democratic gubernatorial candidate fielded questions from the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce’s Jackson Nelson during a changed format at the chamber’s luncheon on Tuesday.
Alaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
Kreiss-TomkinsParsi
Bronson
HolscherVance and local Republican leaders used the rally to appeal to Interior Alaska voters. State and local leaders also attended.
The three are running against Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Alaska last elected a Democrat governor in 1998.
Kreiss-TomkinsBronson has gone psycho. I could have predicted this two years ago when he was mayor. Bronson is always defensive and does not handle defeat well. It’s a psychological problem for Dave.
In Truth Social posts ahead of his speech in Wasilla, Trump was a bit more specific. In one post, he called Bronson and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor, the third Republican in the race, “lesser candidates.”
President Trump endorsed Bernadette Wilson on October 13 and told Alaska Republicans to unite behind her, but Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor are staying in the four-way ranked-choice race.
Kreiss-TomkinsBronsonAlaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
Hours before appearing, Trump endorsed Anchorage businesswoman Bernadette Wilson in the open gubernatorial race. Wilson led the Republican field in the August primary.
In a surprise announcement Tuesday, President Donald Trump said he is endorsing Republican Alaska gubernatorial candidate Bernadette Wilson in the four-way race to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
Bernadette Wilson, a 2026 Alaska gubernatorial candidate, was interviewed by Must Read Alaska before President Trump’s midterm rally in Wasilla. Wilson highlighted strong support and noted Trump’s endorsement of her.
The article covers former President Donald Trump’s visit to Wasilla, Alaska, to campaign for GOP candidates.
The NPR article covers Donald Trump’s campaign stop in Alaska as he endorses and campaigns for GOP candidates, including urging support for Bernadette Wilson in the Alaska governor’s race.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 77.0% | 76.8% | 78.5% | 1.7 pts | – | |
| RBernadette Wilson | 21.4% | 21.5% | 19.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RDavid Bronson | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| Bill Walker | 1.0% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Lesil McGuire | 1.0% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Tom Begich | 0.8% Kalshi only |
– | 0.8% | – | – | |
| RTreg Taylor | 0.5% Kalshi only |
– | 0.5% | – | – | |
| Click Bishop | 0.2% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Adam Crum | 0.2% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| DMary Peltola | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Edna DeVries | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Shelley Hughes | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Matt Heilala | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Matt Claman | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| James Parkin | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Hank Kroll | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Bruce Walden | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Gregg Brelsford | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Jessica Faircloth | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Conservative activist and founder of a waste management company, one of three Republicans in the ranked-choice general election for governor of Alaska in 2026.
David Bronson, a Republican pilot and retired Air National Guard officer who was mayor of Anchorage from 2021 to 2024, is a 2026 candidate for governor of Alaska.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat who represented Sitka and Southeast Alaska in the state House from 2013 to 2023, is running for governor of Alaska in 2026.
Treg Taylor, Alaska's attorney general from 2021 to 2025, is a Republican candidate in the 2026 ranked-choice election for governor of Alaska.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Alaska Governor margin of victory
| Republicans, 2+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Republicans, 6+ pts | 6.2% | |
| Republicans, 10+ pts | 4.0% | |
| Republicans, 14+ pts | 3.3% | |
| Republicans, 18+ pts | 3.0% |
Alaska Governor margin of victory
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 55.0% | |
| Democrats, 8+ pts | – | |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 26.0% | |
| Democrats, 14+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Democrats, 17+ pts | 7.4% |
Prices which candidate wins.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: Counted · bid 76.7% / ask 76.8% · $93.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which candidate wins.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: Counted · bid 78.0% / ask 79.0% · $12.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
