AK-AL House 2026
- Polymarket
- 83.5%
- Kalshi
- 86.5%
- Spread
- 3.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.9
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Republican Party, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi | ||||||
| RRepublican Party | 85.9% | 83.5% | 86.5% | 3.0 pts | – | |
| Bill Hill (Polymarket) | 16.1% Polymarket only |
16.1% | – | – | – | |
| DDemocratic Party | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.1 pts | – | |
| Jim McDermott | 0.2% Polymarket only |
0.2% | – | – | – | |
| Which candidate wins · Kalshi | ||||||
| Bill Hill (Kalshi) | 12.5% Kalshi only |
– | 12.5% | – | – | |
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Candidates & Background
Bill Hill is a candidate for the US House in Alaska's at-large congressional district (AK-AL) in 2026.
Jim McDermott is a candidate for the US House in Alaska's at-large congressional district (AK-AL) in 2026.
Each venue's market
Polymarket$61.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
Republican Party: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $8.5K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to represent any party for purposes of this market, regardless of any subsequent caucus decision. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi69.7K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Republican Party: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $32.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Republican Party
If a member of the Republican party is sworn in for AK-AL for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Alaska
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