Updated Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Mayor · 3 November 2026

Providence Mayor 2026

98.5% David Morales leads TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlyOther leader
Polymarket
–
Kalshi
98.5%
Spread
–
24h
0.0
7 days
−1.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Providence Mayor.

  1. In Divided Portland, Ore., Anti-Police Posts Fuel a Fight Over the Future

    Mr. Green, a democratic socialist, dug in. His language may have been “spicy,” he said, but the principles held.

    New York TimesMorales
  2. NBC10 interview: Morales looks to blunt concern over socialism, being pro-Palestinian

    David Morales, a Democratic state representative and Providence mayoral candidate, is favored to win after defeating incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley in the primary.

    WJARMorales
  3. Connect to Providence: Mayor Smiley speaks

    The article covers an interview with Providence Mayor Brett Smiley conducted by NBC 10’s Dan Jaehnig. Key topics include whether Smiley would support Rep.

    WJARMorales
  4. David Talan Seeks Smiley Voters in Providence Mayor Race

    David Morales is the Democratic Socialist candidate in Providence’s mayoral race, challenging Republican David Talan and incumbent-turned-opponent Brey Smiley's primary victory path.

    hoodline.comMorales
  5. Providence mayoral hopeful David Morales outlines rent control, public safety and pro‑Palestinian stance

    Housing and affordability: Pro-rent stabilization to limit sharp rent hikes while maintaining new housing development; focus on keeping Providence affordable for working families.

    hyperlocalloop.comMorales

David Morales, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. Only one venue lists it, so the figure comes from that venue alone. The thinner line is that venue's own daily price.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™KalshiRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™Kalshi24h
David Morales 98.5%
Kalshi only
98.5% 0.0
Brett Smiley 1.5%
Kalshi only
1.5% 0.0
Michael English 1.0%
implied
– –
Allen Waters 1.0%
implied
– –

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/mayor/providence/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=mayor-providence">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

David Morales

David Morales

Member of the Rhode Island House of Representatives from the 7th district (since 2021)

David Morales, a Democrat representing the 7th district in the Rhode Island House of Representatives since 2021, defeated Mayor Brett Smiley in the September 9, 2026, primary and is the Democratic nominee for mayor.

Born 1998

Each venue's market

Kalshi261.3K contracts traded

Prices which candidate wins.

David Morales: Counted · bid 98.0% / ask 99.0% · $2.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: David Morales

If David Morales wins the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi