House · 3 November 2026

RI-02 House 2026

92.2% DSeth Magaziner leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 92.2%
Kalshi: 92.2%
Spread: 0.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: −5.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Seth Magaziner, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSeth Magaziner	92.2%		92.2%	92.2%	0.1 pts	–
RVictor Mellor	6.8%		6.9%	6.7%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Seth Magaziner

Democratic U.S. Representative for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district (since 2023)

Seth Magaziner, a Democrat who served as Rhode Island general treasurer from 2015 to 2023 and has represented the 2nd congressional district since 2023, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican businessman Victor Mellor.

Born 1983 · Bristol, Rhode Island

Full candidate profile →

Victor Mellor

Republican

Victor Mellor, a Republican businessman and registered foreign agent for Cuba, is the Republican nominee for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Seth Magaziner in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.6K contracts

Rhode Island's 2nd District margin of victory

Magaziner, 7+ pts		95.6%
Magaziner, 10+ pts		93.9%
Magaziner, 13+ pts		92.4%
Magaziner, 16+ pts		85.5%
Magaziner, 19+ pts		74.5%
Magaziner, 22+ pts		60.0%
Magaziner, 25+ pts		45.0%
Magaziner, 28+ pts		29.5%
Magaziner, 31+ pts		17.5%
Magaziner, 34+ pts		8.6%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.2K traded

RI-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.6%
Democrat 0-5%		0.1%
Democrat 5-10%		3.4%
Democrat 10-15%		5.0%
Democrat 15-20%		11.3%
Democrat 20-25%		–
Democrat 25-30%		32.5%
Democrat 30-35%		11.0%
Democrat 35%+		6.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$50.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Seth Magaziner: Counted · bid 92.1% / ask 92.2% · $3.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi11.9K contracts traded