nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Rhode Island Senate 2026

98.4% DJack Reed leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
98.4%
Kalshi
98.4%
Spread
0.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.7
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Rhode Island Senate.

Top story

State of Rhode Island General Assembly

The Rhode Island General Assembly press release highlights legislation introduced by Senate President Dominick Ruggerio to address lead pipes in Rhode Island’s water system.

rilegislature.govOfficialMcKay
  1. Calling off livestream of execution was right call, members say

    Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, praised the president’s decision to call off the livestreamed execution but criticized the episode as reflecting impulsive, dysfunctional…

    Roll CallReed
  2. Reed Tours Nearly Completed NOAA Hub at NAVSTA Newport

    U.S. Sen. Jack Reed led the effort to bring NOAA’s Mission Operations Center Atlantic (MOC-A) to Rhode Island, touring the nearly complete $147 million NOAA facilities at NAVSTA Newport.

    newportthisweek.comReed
  3. Susan Collins Pays Out $105 to Win Maine Senate: Latest Polls Show Statistical Tie
    gambling911.comMcKayAndersonMurphy
  4. Tracking the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in 2026

    The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.

    Yahoo NewsWessBookerBookerMizusawaMcKayAndersonThomasMurphyRischMarkerMooreByrdHagemanRothBeaudion
  5. Early voting opens for general election

    Rhode Island gubernatorial candidate Helena Foulkes is highlighted in coverage of early voting.

    jamestownpress.comFoulkesMcKayReed
More coverage 11
  1. Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates

    There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.

    thelistwire.usatoday.comAchillesMarkerHernWessBookerBengsMcKayAndersonBradshawStrattonLetlowDeatonRischDavisRoundsHageman
  2. Odds Continue to Tighten in Texas Senate Race: Ken Paxton Payout Odds $150
    gambling911.comMcKayAndersonDeatonBengsMooreMurphyLetlowSmithRoundsMarkerHern
  3. Hirono, Senate Committee Leaders, Tri-Ca...

    The page is a press releases index on Senator Mazie Hirono’s site, not a specific article about Jill Tokuda or HI-02 House.

    hirono.senate.govOfficialTokudaWhitesidesCaseTitusReed
  4. Rhode Island recibe $2.3 millones en fondos federales para mejoras ambientales.

    Resumen: El senador estadounidense Jack Reed anunció que Rhode Island recibirá 2.3 millones de dólares en fondos federales para mejoras ambientales, procedentes de la EPA a través del Programa del Sureste de Nueva…

    noticiasrhodeisland.comReed
  5. Riley, Smith campaign for District 41 seat | News

    The article covers candidates for District 41 (Scituate and western Cranston) in Rhode Island, focusing on two contenders: Michael J. “Lou” Riley (R) and Smith (first name not fully shown in excerpt).

    valleybreeze.comMcKay
  6. Lighthizer clarifies Section 232 ‘program’ to probing Senators

    The article reports that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated during questioning by Sen.

    Inside TradeReed
  7. Rhode Island 2026: Democrat Foulkes Leads Independent Block by 9 Points for Governor, Toss-up for Lt. Gov - Emerson Polling

    “Helena Foulkes leads the election for Governor, with her strongest support among Democrats (77%), voters under 50 (59%) and women (53%).

    Emerson College PollingFoulkesReedMorales
  8. Incumbents face challengers in local state Senate races

    The article previews contested Rhode Island State Senate races in southern Rhode Island for the November 3 election, focusing on candidates and issue stances.

    southcountystar.orgMcKay
  9. Slotkin, Coons, Colleagues Introduce Bill to Sanction Israeli Settlements in the West Bank  - Senator Elissa Slotkin

    The article reports that Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) is among the cosponsors of a bill introduced by Slotkin, Colleagues to sanction Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

    slotkin.senate.govOfficialReed
  10. EPA's Southeast New England Program Announces $2.3 Million to Support Vital Environmental Restoration in Rhode Island ~ Restore America's Estuaries

    The Southeast New England Program (SNEP) in Rhode Island is receiving $2.3 million in grants and technical assistance from the EPA to support local environmental restoration projects across Rhode Island and Southeastern…

    estuaries.orgReed
  11. Rhode Island receives $2.3 million in federal funding for environmental upgrades

    U.S. Sen. Jack Reed announced that Rhode Island will receive $2.3 million in federal funding from the Environmental Protection Agency via the Southeast New England Program (SNEP) for environmental upgrades.

    WJARReed

Jack Reed, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJack Reed 98.4% 98.4% 98.4% 0.0 pts –
RRaymond McKay 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jack Reed

Jack Reed

Democratic U.S. Senator from Rhode Island (since 1997)

Jack Reed, a Democrat and former Army officer who has represented Rhode Island in the U.S. Senate since 1997, is seeking a sixth term in 2026.

Born 1949 · Providence, Rhode Island
Raymond McKay

Raymond McKay

Republican

Raymond McKay, a former member of the Rhode Island Republican Party State Central Committee, is the Republican nominee challenging Senator Jack Reed in 2026.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.4K contracts

Rhode Island Senate margin of victory

Reed, 17+ pts
95.5%
Reed, 19+ pts
94.0%
Reed, 21+ pts
90.8%
Reed, 23+ pts
85.5%
Reed, 25+ pts
78.5%
Reed, 27+ pts
71.5%
Reed, 29+ pts
62.0%
Reed, 31+ pts
48.0%
Reed, 33+ pts
36.5%
Reed, 35+ pts
27.5%
Reed, 37+ pts
20.5%
Reed, 39+ pts
11.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.9K traded

Rhode Island Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
1.8%
Democrat 0-5%
2.3%
Democrat 5-10%
1.3%
Democrat 10-15%
0.7%
Democrat 15-20%
7.8%
Democrat 20-25%
13.6%
Democrat 25-30%
20.5%
Democrat 30%+
55.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$26.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jack Reed: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 99.6% · $6.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi35.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jack Reed: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 99.5% · $23.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jack Reed

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Rhode Island for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Rhode Island

  1. Rhode Island GovernorD95%
  2. RI-01 HouseD98%
  3. RI-02 HouseD92%
  4. Providence Mayor99%