US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for RI-01 House.
The article reports that two GOP groups pulled funding from Tom Kean Jr., the Republican incumbent representing New Jersey’s 7th District, ahead of the November 3 election.
During the September opening of a new manufacturing facility for Regent Craft, a Rhode Island-based seaglider company, U.S. Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I. 1) watched the newest prototype fly just above the Narragansett Bay.
AmoThe article covers the rematch for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District between incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan.
Topic: Michigan’s 1st Congressional District (MI-01) race featuring Callie Barr challenging incumbent Bergman.
Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C
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BentzKurdianRebecca Bennett (D) raised $3.92 million in Q3 2026 (July–Sept) to challenge Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) in New Jersey's 7th District.
The New Jersey Globe reports that a Democratic super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries aired a TV ad claiming Rep. Tom Kean Jr. “doubled his net worth” since taking office.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGabe Amo | 98.5% | 99.3% | 98.4% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| RKellie Keenan | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Gabe Amo, a Democrat and former White House intergovernmental affairs official who has represented Rhode Island's 1st congressional district since 2023, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Republican Kellie Keenan, an entrepreneur.
Kellie Keenan, a Republican entrepreneur, is the Republican nominee for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Gabe Amo in the November general election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Rhode Island's 1st District margin of victory
| Amo, 23+ pts | 92.0% implied | |
| Amo, 26+ pts | 92.4% | |
| Amo, 29+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Amo, 32+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Amo, 35+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Amo, 38+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Amo, 41+ pts | 25.5% | |
| Amo, 44+ pts | 13.6% | |
| Amo, 47+ pts | 5.7% |
RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 0.7% | |
| Democrat 10-20% | 1.8% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 23.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 29.0% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 28.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 5.0% | |
| Democrat 50%+ | 4.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Gabe Amo: Counted · bid 99.2% / ask 99.4% · $72 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Gabe Amo: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 99.9% · $1.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Gabe Amo
If the House member sworn in for RI-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
