Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Arkansas: Water Infrastructure Bond Question

88.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlyLikely Yes

Polymarket: –
Kalshi: 88.0%
Spread: –
24h: −0.5
7 days: −1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. Only one venue lists it, so the figure comes from that venue alone. The thinner line is that venue's own daily price.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Kalshi	24h
Yes	88.0% Kalshi only		88.0%	−0.5

Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Kalshi14.1K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 85.0% / ask 91.0% · $187 within 5 pts

If Water Infrastructure Bond Question passes in Arkansas, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

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