nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AR-04 House 2026

97.7% RBruce Westerman leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.5%
Kalshi
98.7%
Spread
2.2 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AR-04 House.

  1. Whittlebury Park Plans £4m Renewable Energy Investment - Hospitality & Catering News

    James Russell reports that Whittlebury Park is planning a £4 million investment in renewable energy.

    hospitalityandcateringnews.comRussell
  2. Bohopo Secures Financing for 22-Room Maison Arya Hotel in Porto - Hospitality & Catering News

    James Russell reports that Bohopo has secured financing for the 22-room Maison Arya Hotel in Porto. The article, published Oct 15, 2026, covers the financing news and its implications for the hotel project in Porto.

    hospitalityandcateringnews.comRussell
  3. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  4. Five CMS board members asked to resign: what each said

    The article reports on CMS board members who were asked to resign.

    cltmercury.comRussell
  5. Judge Orders Records Release Amid Allegations Cleveland Fire Recruit Died During Racist Hazing

    The article reports that Attorney James Russell, representing the City of Cleveland, agreed to a three-week deadline in a records-release dispute related to a case involving a Cleveland fire recruit’s death amid…

    firehouse.comRussell
More coverage 3
  1. Steve Brawner: More of a joint appearance, but informative | Opinion

    The Magnolia Reporter coverage notes that Steve Brawner commented on a debate featuring James Russell, the Democratic challenger in Arkansas’s 4th Congressional District (AR-04) race, alongside Republican Bruce…

    magnoliareporter.comRussellWestermanSanders
  2. Primo Brands Opens New Mountain Valley Factory As Demand Grows

    Bruce Westerman, the U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th District (AR-04), attended Primo Brands’ new Mountain Valley factory ribbon-cutting in Hot Springs. The event included Gov.

    bevnet.comWesterman
  3. ‘Tickled to death:’ Joe Manchin’s excited about a potential permitting victory 👉 Updatem News

    The article discusses House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and his role in pursuing a bipartisan permitting bill.

    updatem.comWesterman

Bruce Westerman, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RBruce Westerman 97.7% 96.5% 98.7% 2.2 pts –
DJames Russell 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 0.8 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Bruce Westerman

Bruce Westerman

Republican U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (since 2015)

Bruce Westerman, a Republican forester and engineer who has represented Arkansas's 4th congressional district since 2015, faces Democrat James Russell, a mental health advocate, in the 2026 election.

Born 1967

James Russell

Democratic

James Russell, a mental health advocate and 2022 candidate for governor, is the Democratic nominee for Arkansas's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Bruce Westerman in November.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.7K contracts

Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory

Westerman, 24+ pts
90.6%
Westerman, 27+ pts
81.5%
Westerman, 30+ pts
70.0%
Westerman, 33+ pts
54.5%
Westerman, 36+ pts
39.5%
Westerman, 39+ pts
25.5%
Westerman, 42+ pts
13.8%
Westerman, 45+ pts
6.5%
Westerman, 48+ pts
3.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$24.7K traded

AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
1.3%
Republican 0-15%
2.9%
Republican 15-25%
4.3%
Republican 25-30%
18.9%
Republican 30-35%
27.0%
Republican 35-40%
–
Republican 40-45%
11.1%
Republican 45-50%
3.8%
Republican 50-55%
1.7%
Republican 55%+
0.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Bruce Westerman: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.9% · $538 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Bruce Westerman: Counted · bid 97.7% / ask 99.7% · $590 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Bruce Westerman

If the House member sworn in for AR-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Arkansas

  1. Arkansas SenateR95%
  2. Arkansas GovernorR97%
  3. AR-01 HouseR98%
  4. AR-02 HouseR83%
  5. AR-03 HouseR94%