House · 3 November 2026

AR-01 House 2026

97.7% RRick Crawford leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 97.3%
Kalshi: 98.3%
Spread: 0.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Rick Crawford, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRick Crawford	97.7%		97.3%	98.3%	0.9 pts	–
DTerri Green	1.5%		1.4%	1.7%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Rick Crawford

Republican U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (since 2011)

Rick Crawford, a Republican who has represented Arkansas's 1st congressional district since 2011 and chairs the House Intelligence Committee, faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, in the 2026 election.

Born 1966 · Homestead Air Force Base, Florida

Full candidate profile →

Terri Green

Democratic

Terri Green, a retired pathologist, is the Democratic nominee for Arkansas's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Rick Crawford and Libertarian Steve Parsons in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.4K contracts

Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

Crawford, 27+ pts		93.8%
Crawford, 30+ pts		88.5%
Crawford, 33+ pts		78.0%
Crawford, 36+ pts		66.0%
Crawford, 39+ pts		49.5%
Crawford, 42+ pts		32.5%
Crawford, 45+ pts		18.5%
Crawford, 48+ pts		8.8%
Crawford, 51+ pts		3.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$25.5K traded

AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.4%
Republican 0-15%		2.5%
Republican 15-25%		4.2%
Republican 25-30%		4.9%
Republican 30-35%		18.5%
Republican 35-40%		25.0%
Republican 40-45%		26.5%
Republican 45-50%		–
Republican 50-55%		6.8%
Republican 55%+		3.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Rick Crawford: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 97.8% · $1.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi22.2K contracts traded