nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

AR-02 House 2026

83.1% RFrench Hill leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
82.5%
Kalshi
83.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for AR-02 House.

  1. Arkansas U.S. Congressional District 2 candidates debate Iran war, gun regulations and housing

    CONWAY, Ark. – Candidates for Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill and Democratic nominee Chris Jones, faced off in an Arkansas TV debate in Conway on Thursday.

    KARKHill
  2. Central Arkansas congressional candidates debate independence from Trump, cost of living

    Political forecasters and polls have projected a tight race between Chris Jones and U.S. Rep. French Hill

    Arkansas AdvocateHill
  3. Republican Hill, Democrat Jones spar in Arkansas 2nd District debate

    16 hours, 22 minutes ago by Arkansas Democrat-Gazette | Updated October 15, 2026 at 5:54 p.m.

    Arkansas Democrat-GazetteHill
  4. WATCH: Hill, Jones square off in 2nd District debate

    Chris Jones (D) is one of the candidates in Arkansas’s 2nd Congressional District race. The Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette coverage highlights a 2026 debate between Jones and incumbent Rep.

    Northwest Arkansas Democrat-GazetteJones
  5. Democrats keep expanding their battleground map. History suggests it’s a mirage

    Florida’s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who has distanced herself from Trump’s deportation policies.

    Washington ExaminerHurdGendebienConstantinoAuringerRomeroJonesDelaney
More coverage 3
  1. Candidates for Arkansas' U.S. House District 1 debate

    The candidates for Arkansas' U.S. House District 2 are taking part in a debate on Thursday at 1:30 p.m. Follow this link to watch or use the YouTube video player below.

    KHBS/KHOGHill
  2. The Overlooked Congressional Race That Could End a Historic Barrier in the South

    The article highlights Arkansas 2nd Congressional District candidate Chris Jones (a Democrat) who could become the first Black member of Congress from Arkansas if elected, challenging Republican Rep. French Hill.

    Yahoo NewsJr.Jones
  3. Vault: Hill, Jones spar over housing in Little Rock

    Topic: A televised debate in Little Rock between Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Democratic challenger Chris Jones focused heavily on housing policy and the cost of living.

    Punchbowl NewsJr.Jones

French Hill, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RFrench Hill 83.1% 82.5% 83.5% 1.0 pts –
DChris Jones 16.8% 17.0% 16.5% 0.5 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Chris Jones

Chris Jones

Democratic

Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer who was the Democratic nominee for governor of Arkansas in 2022, is the Democratic nominee for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent French Hill.

Born 1976 · Pine Bluff, Arkansas
French Hill

French Hill

Republican U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (since 2015)

French Hill, a Republican businessman who has represented Arkansas's 2nd congressional district since 2015, faces Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and the party's 2022 nominee for governor, in the 2026 election.

Born 1956 · Little Rock, Arkansas

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.5K contracts

Arkansas's 2nd District margin of victory

Hill, 3+ pts
69.5%
Hill, 6+ pts
53.5%
Hill, 9+ pts
37.0%
Hill, 12+ pts
22.5%
Hill, 15+ pts
11.5%
Hill, 18+ pts
5.0%
Hill, 21+ pts
6.3%
implied
Hill, 24+ pts
5.0%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.1K traded

AR-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25%+
0.7%
Republican 20-25%
–
Republican 15-20%
4.0%
Republican 10-15%
13.4%
Republican 5-10%
24.1%
Republican 0-5%
28.5%
Democrat 0-5%
13.6%
Democrat 5%+
3.1%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$39.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

French Hill: Counted · bid 82.0% / ask 83.0% · $19.8K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi53.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

French Hill: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 84.0% · $33.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: French Hill

If the House member sworn in for AR-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Arkansas

  1. Arkansas SenateR95%
  2. Arkansas GovernorR97%
  3. AR-01 HouseR98%
  4. AR-03 HouseR94%
  5. AR-04 HouseR98%