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Cotton takes lead over Shoffner in new Senate poll
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Arkansas Times
Shoffner
ShoffnerUpdated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026
Arkansas Senate 2026
- Polymarket
- 94.6%
- Kalshi
- 94.5%
- Spread
- 0.3 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Arkansas Senate.
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New Arkansas poll shows Tom Cotton takes lead over Hallie Shoffner in race for U.S. Senate seat
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.: Polling released Thursday evening shows Sen. Tom Cotton making some gains against opponent Hallie Shoffner in the race to represent Arkansas in the U.S. Senate.
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Poll: Cotton takes lead over Shoffner
Senator Tom Cotton is in a solid position to win re-election on November 3rd. He leads Democrat Hallie Shoffner by 9 percentage points, with only 5 percent of voters remaining as undecided.
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Cotton, Arkansas Republicans announce $1M get-out-the-vote effort for midterm election - Hot Springs Village Voice
Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, was first elected in 2014 and won reelection in 2020 against Libertarian challenger Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who won a third of the vote.
hsvvoice.com
Cotton -
Cotton seeks third term in U.S. Senate, but faces potentially stiff challenge from Democrat Shoffner
Sen. Tom Cotton (left) is running for a third term in the U.S. Senate against Libertarian Jeff Wadlin (middle) and Democrat Hallie Shoffner (right).
KUARCotton -
Cotton’s absence takes center stage at debate between Arkansas’ US Senate candidates | News
CONWAY: Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton was not in the room as his Democratic and Libertarian challengers debated Monday, but criticism of the Arkansas lawmaker’s record and his absence from the debate took center…
More coverage 6
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OPINION | WOODY BASSETT: Cotton has lots of money, ads, but showing up for a debate is too much to ask?
This week, Arkansas TV held a debate for the Senate candidates. Hallie Shoffner was there as was Jeff Wadlin, the Libertarian Party candidate.
Northwest Arkansas Democrat-GazetteShoffner -
Tom Cotton and Hallie Shoffner Will Not Debate Ahead of Election
Tom Cotton and his Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner will not debate before the November election.
arkansas-express.comCotton -
U.S. Senate debate between Cotton and Shoffner cancelled
Tom Cotton’s Arkansas Senate race: Salem Media Group canceled the U.S. Senate debate between Cotton (R) and Hallie Shoffner (D) after both campaigns confirmed participation.
Northwest Arkansas Democrat-GazetteCotton -
In Arkansas, a Senate Race Plays Out Amid Farm Stress
Nonpartisan raters call the race safely Republican, but Shoffner argues farm stress could loosen the GOP’s hold on rural voters.
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Incumbent Tom Cotton Absent from Debate for U.S. Senate Seat in Arkansas
Tom Cotton, the incumbent U.S. Senator from Arkansas, did not participate in the scheduled Senate debate. The article notes his absence from the debate for Arkansas' U.S. Senate seat.
KDAQCotton -
Debate between Sen. Tom Cotton and Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner canceled
A planned debate between U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner was canceled.
KFSMCotton
No story this week names this candidate.
Tom Cotton, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTom Cotton | 94.6% | 94.6% | 94.5% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DHallie Shoffner | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Hallie Shoffner
Democratic
Hallie Shoffner is an Arkansas farmer and agricultural executive who won the 2026 Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Tom Cotton.
Tom Cotton
Republican United States Senator from Arkansas (since 2015)
Tom Cotton, a Republican, has represented Arkansas in the U.S. Senate since 2015 and is seeking a third term in the November 3, 2026 election.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi7.4K contracts
Arkansas Senate margin of victory
| Cotton, 2+ pts | 91.8% | |
| Cotton, 4+ pts | 86.3% | |
| Cotton, 6+ pts | 82.0% | |
| Cotton, 8+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Cotton, 10+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Cotton, 12+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Cotton, 14+ pts | 38.0% | |
| Cotton, 16+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Cotton, 18+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Cotton, 20+ pts | 13.9% | |
| Cotton, 22+ pts | 8.6% | |
| Cotton, 24+ pts | 5.0% | |
| Cotton, 26+ pts | 3.6% | |
| Cotton, 28+ pts | 5.8% implied | |
| Cotton, 30+ pts | 5.0% implied | |
| Cotton, 32+ pts | 4.7% implied | |
| Cotton, 34+ pts | 4.6% implied |
Polymarket$13.4K traded
Arkansas Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 6.2% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.5% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 17.5% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 33.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 12.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 6.9% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 4.3% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 2.3% | |
| Republican 40%+ | 2.9% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$39.4K traded
Prices which party wins.
Tom Cotton: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 95.0% · $27.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi237.1K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Tom Cotton: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 94.7% · $41.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Tom Cotton
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Arkansas
- Arkansas GovernorR97%
- AR-01 HouseR98%
- AR-02 HouseR83%
- AR-03 HouseR94%
- AR-04 HouseR98%