Delaware Senate 2026
- Polymarket
- 97.7%
- Kalshi
- 98.6%
- Spread
- 0.9 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Democrat, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDemocrat | 98.4% | 97.7% | 98.6% | 0.9 pts | – | |
| RRepublican | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5 pts | – |
Share this race
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
Post on X
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Embed the live card
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi4.1K contracts
Delaware Senate margin of victory
| Democrats, 14+ pts | 94.3% implied | |
| Democrats, 16+ pts | 96.3% | |
| Democrats, 18+ pts | 95.1% | |
| Democrats, 20+ pts | 91.8% | |
| Democrats, 22+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Democrats, 24+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Democrats, 26+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Democrats, 28+ pts | 52.5% | |
| Democrats, 30+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Democrats, 32+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Democrats, 34+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Democrats, 36+ pts | 10.5% | |
| Democrats, 38+ pts | 5.6% |
Polymarket$11.3K traded
Delaware Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.9% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 2.7% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 5.2% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 4.3% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 29.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 22.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 13.0% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 7.9% | |
| Democrat 45%+ | 7.3% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$32.3K traded
Prices which party wins.
Democrat: Counted · bid 97.1% / ask 98.3% · $3.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Delaware U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi27.5K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Democrat: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 99.4% · $14.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Democrat
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Delaware for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Delaware
- DE-AL HouseD98%