DE-AL House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.9%
- Kalshi
- 98.6%
- Spread
- 1.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −1.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Democratic Party, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDemocratic Party | 97.6% | 96.9% | 98.6% | 1.7 pts | – | |
| RRepublican Party | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7 pts | – |
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Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi492 contracts
Delaware margin of victory
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 95.8% | |
| Democrats, 16+ pts | 94.5% | |
| Democrats, 19+ pts | 89.6% | |
| Democrats, 22+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Democrats, 25+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Democrats, 28+ pts | – | |
| Democrats, 31+ pts | 40.0% | |
| Democrats, 34+ pts | – | |
| Democrats, 37+ pts | – | |
| Democrats, 40+ pts | – |
Polymarket$13.4K traded
DE-AL House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 1.6% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 2.4% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 1.3% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 3.4% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 24.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 44.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 16.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 40%+ | 5.3% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$48.3K traded
Prices which party wins.
Democratic Party: Counted · bid 94.9% / ask 98.9% · $1.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi2.0K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Democratic Party: Counted · bid 97.3% / ask 99.9% · $672 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Democratic Party
If the House member sworn in for DE-AL for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Delaware
- Delaware SenateD98%