US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Kansas Senate.
Democrat Adam Hamilton faces Kansas Senate race backlash over a 2020 white privilege sermon as Republican Roger Marshall brands him too woke for Kansas.
HamiltonCan a Dem flip the Kansas Senate seat for the first time in nearly a century?
The Senate Leadership Fund, the top campaign arm for Senate Republicans, planned to spend $14 million in Kansas, where Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall was tied with Hamilton in the polls as of Thursday.
HamiltonOther photos taken throughout 2020 show campaign mailers and donation checks on Robertson’s desk in Marshall’s Senate office.
HamiltonRoger Marshall and Adam Hamilton are tied. Here's where all three candidates stand.
MarshallAdam Hamilton, the Democrat seeking to unseat Senator Roger Marshall, a Republican, is a political newcomer. But Mr.
MarshallPresident Trump coming to Wichita for Roger Marshall campaign rally next week
MarshallWASHINGTON (AP): U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall wanted to solve a water rights dispute in rural Kansas that pitted farmers against environmentalists and threatened the health of a cherished wildlife refuge.
Adam Hamilton has campaigned on a moderate platform while incumbent Senator Roger Marshall spotlights his liberal positions.
State | Joshua Arnold | Oct 14, 2026 | 1:56PM | Topeka, Kansas
HamiltonAdam Hamilton, Democratic Senate candidate for Kansas, speaks during a campaign event in L
HamiltonRoger Marshall added GOP strategist Chris Grant as polls show a tight Kansas race.
MarshallNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRoger Marshall | 64.1% | 63.5% | 64.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DAdam Hamilton | 36.3% | 37.5% | 35.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Adam Hamilton is a United Methodist pastor and author who founded the Church of the Resurrection near Kansas City and won the 2026 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Kansas.
Republican U.S. senator from Kansas since 2021, a former obstetrician and two-term House member, seeking a second Senate term against Democrat Adam Hamilton in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kansas Senate margin of victory
| Marshall, 1+ pts | 57.5% | |
| Marshall, 3+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Marshall, 5+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Marshall, 7+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Marshall, 9+ pts | 9.0% | |
| Marshall, 11+ pts | 6.3% | |
| Marshall, 13+ pts | 3.5% | |
| Marshall, 15+ pts | 3.0% | |
| Marshall, 17+ pts | 2.9% | |
| Marshall, 19+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Marshall, 21+ pts | 4.5% implied | |
| Marshall, 23+ pts | 2.2% |
Kansas Senate margin of victory
| Hamilton, 1+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Hamilton, 3+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Hamilton, 5+ pts | 10.0% | |
| Hamilton, 7+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Hamilton, 9+ pts | 4.0% |
Kansas Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Hamilton Wins | 38.0% | |
| Marshall 0-5% | 37.5% | |
| Marshall 5-10% | 16.5% | |
| Marshall 10-15% | 6.0% | |
| Marshall 15-20% | 3.1% | |
| Marshall 20-25% | 0.9% | |
| Marshall 25-30% | 1.6% | |
| Marshall 30%+ | 0.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Roger Marshall: Counted · bid 63.0% / ask 64.0% · $107.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Roger Marshall: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $170.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Roger Marshall
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
