Control of the U.S. Senate 2026
- Polymarket
- 64.5%
- Kalshi
- 62.5%
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +2.3
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Democratic Party, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDemocratic Party | 63.8% | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RRepublican Party | 36.8% | 36.5% | 38.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
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Democrats have a 63.8% chance to control the Senate on the TruthIndex™
Polymarket 64.5% · Kalshi 62.5% · 2.0 pts apart
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https://midterms.nijinn.io/share/senate-balance/How to read this chart
Each dot is one Senate seat. Dots on the left are races Democrats are favoured to win, and dots on the right are races Republicans are favoured to win. A strong colour means the market is confident about the winner; a pale colour means a closer race. Yellow dots in the middle are toss-ups, where no side has a 60% chance or more.
The faded dots at the two ends are seats that are not on the ballot in 2026. They still count toward each party's total. The dashed line marks control. Democrats need 51 seats. Republicans need 50, because the Vice President breaks a 50–50 tie. Select a dot to open that race.
More in Methodology- Democrats, not upD, not up 34
- Safe DemocratSafe D 11
- Likely DemocratLikely D 2
- Lean DemocratLean D 4
- Toss-up 2
- Lean RepublicanLean R 2
- Likely RepublicanLikely R 2
- Safe RepublicanSafe R 12
- Republicans, not upR, not up 31
Senate seats after the midterms
How many Senate seats each party holds after the midterms. Each venue's market is shown on its own.
Kalshi2.6M contracts
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
| Below 45 | 9.5% | |
| 45 | 7.5% | |
| 46 | 8.5% | |
| 47 | 13.5% | |
| 48 | 15.0% | |
| 49 | 12.5% | |
| 50 | 13.0% | |
| 51 | 8.0% | |
| 52 | 5.5% | |
| 53 | 4.5% | |
| 54 | 2.5% | |
| 55 | 2.5% | |
| 56 | 1.0% implied | |
| 57 | 1.0% implied | |
| Above 57 | 2.5% |
Kalshi465.7K contracts
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
| Below 53 | 64.0% | |
| 53 | 13.0% | |
| 54 | 9.7% | |
| 55 | 6.7% | |
| 56 | 3.3% | |
| 57 | 2.2% | |
| Above 57 | 2.1% |
Kalshi4.7M contracts
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
| Below 45 | 2.6% | |
| 45 | 2.3% | |
| 46 | 2.8% | |
| 47 | 4.3% | |
| 48 | 6.8% | |
| 49 | 8.3% | |
| 50 | 12.5% | |
| 51 | 12.5% | |
| 52 | 16.5% | |
| Above 52 | 35.5% |
Polymarket$3.2M traded
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
| ≤47 | 38.5% | |
| 48 | 16.5% | |
| 49 | 12.5% | |
| 50 | 12.5% | |
| 51 | 9.0% | |
| 52 | 6.0% | |
| 53 | 3.5% | |
| 54 | 2.6% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | |
| 57+ | 0.5% |
Balance of power in Congress
Which party controls each chamber after the midterms. Each venue's market is shown on its own.
Kalshi40.7M contracts
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
| Democrats sweep | 61.5% | |
| D-House, R-Senate | 30.5% | |
| Republicans sweep | 10.5% | |
| R-House, D-Senate | 0.8% |
Polymarket$24.3M traded
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
| Democrats Sweep | 62.5% | |
| R Senate, D House | 27.5% | |
| Republicans Sweep | 9.5% | |
| D Senate, R House | 0.9% | |
| Other | 0.1% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$6.8M traded
Prices which party wins.
Democratic Party: Counted · bid 64.0% / ask 65.0% · $1.1M within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi15.1M contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Democratic Party: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $590.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Democratic Party
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.