Updated Oct 30, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
3 November 2026 · Battlegrounds
Competitive Senate Races 2026
8 races rated Toss-up or Lean where neither party holds a commanding lead. Ranked in real time by competitiveness on the TruthIndex™.
8 battlegrounds
Key races to watch
Kansas SenateToss-up
TruthIndex™
DAdam Hamilton
53.5%
RRoger Marshall
47.1%
Polymarket 54.5% · Kalshi 52.5% · 3.0 pts apart
Iowa SenateToss-up
TruthIndex™
RAshley Hinson
55.5%
DJosh Turek
44.5%
Polymarket 55.5% · Kalshi 55.5% · 0.0 pts apart
Nebraska SenateLean R
TruthIndex™
RPete Ricketts
66.8%
IIndependent
31.5%
Polymarket 67.5% · Kalshi 66.5% · 1.0 pts apart
Maine SenateLean D
TruthIndex™
DTroy Jackson
68.0%
RSusan Collins
31.5%
Polymarket 68.5% · Kalshi 67.5% · 1.0 pts apart
Alaska SenateLean D
TruthIndex™
DMary Peltola
70.2%
RSen. Dan Sullivan
29.8%
Polymarket 70.5% · Kalshi 67.5% · 3.0 pts apart
Ohio Senate (special)Lean D
TruthIndex™
DSherrod Brown
70.5%
RJon Husted
29.5%
Polymarket 70.5% · Kalshi 70.5% · 0.0 pts apart
Texas SenateLean D
TruthIndex™
DJames Talarico
71.5%
RKen Paxton
28.5%
Polymarket 71.5% · Kalshi 71.5% · 0.0 pts apart
South Carolina SenateLean R
TruthIndex™
RDarline Graham Nordone
73.1%
DAnnie Andrews
27.1%
Polymarket 73.5% · Kalshi 72.5% · 1.0 pts apart
Full battleground ranking
All competitive races
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | DAdam Hamilton | Toss-up | 53.5% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 3.0 pts | +4.3 | +14.4 | 8.3M | ||
| Iowa | RAshley Hinson | Toss-up | 55.5% | 55.5% | 55.5% | 0.0 pts | +2.8 | −2.7 | 9.1M | ||
| Nebraska | RPete Ricketts | Lean R | 66.8% | 67.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts | −3.1 | −8.7 | 5.2M | ||
| Maine | DTroy Jackson | Lean D | 68.0% | 68.5% | 67.5% | 1.0 pts | +4.9 | +4.0 | 15.3M | ||
| Alaska | DMary Peltola | Lean D | 70.2% | 70.5% | 67.5% | 3.0 pts | −0.2 | −4.3 | 3.0M | ||
| Ohio (special) | DSherrod Brown | Lean D | 70.5% | 70.5% | 70.5% | 0.0 pts | +2.4 | +1.9 | 11.4M | ||
| Texas | DJames Talarico | Lean D | 71.5% | 71.5% | 71.5% | 0.0 pts | +2.7 | +7.1 | 63.6M | ||
| South Carolina | RDarline Graham Nordone | Lean R | 73.1% | 73.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 pts | +1.6 | −5.7 | 9.0M |