US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Iowa Senate.
A new Marist poll that released on Thursday shows that Republican Ashley Hinson is gaining on Democrat Josh Turek in the race for Iowa's U.S.
HinsonIn the final debate of Iowa’s U.S. Senate election, the candidates drew on familiar attacks, with Democrat Josh Turek questioning Republican Ashley Hinson’s wealth, and Hinson targeting Turek for absenteeism as an…
TurekRepublican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek traded sharp attacks over private stock, missed votes, fuel prices and the Iran war in their final debate before Election Day.
TurekTurek says the pressure on farmers comes from the war in Iran and from tariffs, and he ties both to Hinson’s record. He writes that Hinson voted seven times to continue the war and five times for tariffs.
COUNCIL BLUFFS, IA: At every basketball game he played, Josh Turek ensured the announcers introduced him the same way.
Iowa's U.S. Senate candidates Ashley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D). Photo courtesy of NBC.
TurekJust three points separate Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.
Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate in Iowa, is campaigning with her “Fighting for Iowa Bus Tour.” In Sioux City (less than 3 weeks before the election), she outlined a plan focused on affordability: boosting…
HinsonU.S. Senate candidate Rep. Josh Turek, D-Council Bluffs, speaks during a debate on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026, in Johnston, Iowa.
TurekDES MOINES, Iowa: For the first time in over a decade, Iowa has an open U.S. Senate seat. Candidates are fighting for the seat currently occupied by Republican U.S. Senator Joni Ernst.
TurekIowa Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek is seen at the Farm Progress Show on Sept. 1, 2026, in Boone, Iowa.
TurekAshley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D) debated in Iowa’s final Senate race debate as early in-person voting began. Key moment: Hinson broke with President Trump over his Russia diesel deal, saying the U.S.
HinsonA YouGov poll indicates a tight Iowa U.S. Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson, with Turek leading 47% to 46% and 4% undecided (margin of error ±3.1%).
HinsonHealthcare: Hinson touted investments in rural care, citing the Rural Health Transformation Fund and the Healthy Hometowns program.
HinsonNewsweek reports a tight Iowa Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson.
HinsonNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAshley Hinson | 57.1% | 58.5% | 56.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DJosh Turek | 43.6% | 41.5% | 44.5% | 3.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Ashley Hinson, a Republican former television journalist, has represented Iowa in the U.S. House since 2021 and is her party's 2026 nominee for the Senate.
Josh Turek, a Democratic Iowa state representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, faces Republican Ashley Hinson for Iowa's open Senate seat in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Iowa Senate margin of victory
| Hinson, 2+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Hinson, 4+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Hinson, 6+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Hinson, 8+ pts | 10.0% | |
| Hinson, 10+ pts | 5.5% | |
| Hinson, 12+ pts | 3.0% | |
| Hinson, 14+ pts | 4.9% implied |
Iowa Senate margin of victory
| Turek, 2+ pts | 34.0% | |
| Turek, 4+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Turek, 6+ pts | 10.5% |
Iowa Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Hinson 12%+ | 1.4% | |
| Hinson 9-12% | 2.1% | |
| Hinson 6-9% | 2.2% | |
| Hinson 3-6% | 13.0% | |
| Hinson 0-3% | 21.5% | |
| Turek 0-3% | 32.5% | |
| Turek 3-6% | 15.8% | |
| Turek 6-9% | 7.6% | |
| Turek 9-12% | 0.9% | |
| Turek 12%+ | 3.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Ashley Hinson: Counted · bid 58.0% / ask 59.0% · $129.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Ashley Hinson: Counted · bid 56.0% / ask 57.0% · $328.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ashley Hinson
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
