US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for New Hampshire Governor.
Now, Ricketts remains favored to win, enjoying about a 4 in 5 chance of success in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. While the polls are close, Ricketts’s chances are helped by Nebraska’s firmly red lean.
MANCHESTER, N.H.: New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, sent a letter on Thursday urging the social media company X to suspend a far-right Libertarian group’s account because it keeps endorsing political…
AyotteLily Tang Williams, the Republican nominee for New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, addresses residents Friday morning in the dining room of the New Hampshire Veterans Home.
Williams
Warmington“The jolt to transportation prices affects every good in the economy, since inputs to manufacturing move to factories and goods at all stages of production move from producer to wholesaler to retailer by truck, train or…
WarmingtonCook also recently moved three states from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican," reflecting movement toward the Democratic candidate. They are Nebraska (Republican Gov. Jim Pillen vs. Democratic former state Sen.
Ayotte
Kreiss-TomkinsWilsonWirthNew Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte, who is up for reelection in 2026, was first inaugurated as governor on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025, in Concord, N.H.
AyotteGov. Kelly Ayotte speaks with David Vermokowitz of Landscape Plus during a visit to his business in Goffstown on Thursday.
WarmingtonThis story was originally produced by the New Hampshire Bulletin, an independent local newsroom that allows NHPR and other outlets to republish its reporting.
AyotteThe governor's visit to New Hampshire comes after he raised a half of a million dollars for New Hampshire Democrats this election cycle.
WarmingtonOct 11 − To the Editor:Cinde Warmington’s priorities for her job as Governor are everything we need for New Hampshire. She is listening to us.
WarmingtonNHPR dives into the candidates’ records on housing and how they say they’ll bring costs down.
AyotteWarmingtonAfter years of advocating for a “net zero” energy policy in New Hampshire, Democrat Cinde Warmington's campaign has filed a complaint over an ad attacking
WarmingtonGov. Kelly Ayotte called for a program Wednesday to provide free tuition for New Hampshire community college students with a total family income of up to $100,000, and said she would add such a proposal in her budget if…
AyotteWhatever your opinion of the politics of U.S. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, both served multiple terms as governor.
AyotteThe governor’s visit to New Hampshire comes after he raised a half of a million dollars for New Hampshire Democrats this election cycle.
WarmingtonThe issue of opioid money has loomed large over the 2026 midterm election cycle as Sununu’s party has made former New Hampshire Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington’s past opioid lobbying work the center of her campaign…
WarmingtonGovernor Kelly Ayotte announces Community College Promise Program, a proposal to make community college more affordable for New Hampshire residents by providing free tuition for eligible students with a family income of…
AyotteCinde Warmington discusses her policy priorities with freshman Max Corbett, left, sophomore Peter Drew, right, and other Dartmouth Rockefeller Student Assistants at the Nelson A.
WarmingtonPappas, a New Hampshire congressman, won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on September 8 and now faces Republican nominee and former U.S.
AyotteNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKelly Ayotte | 93.7% | 93.2% | 94.4% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| DCinde Warmington | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 0.4 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Cinde Warmington is a New Hampshire attorney and former executive councilor who launched a 2026 Democratic campaign for governor against Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte.
Kelly Ayotte, a Republican former U.S. senator and New Hampshire attorney general, has served as governor of New Hampshire since 2025 and is seeking a second term in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New Hampshire Governor margin of victory
| Ayotte, 2+ pts | 94.0% | |
| Ayotte, 5+ pts | 87.5% | |
| Ayotte, 8+ pts | – | |
| Ayotte, 11+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Ayotte, 14+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Ayotte, 17+ pts | 16.0% | |
| Ayotte, 20+ pts | 6.3% | |
| Ayotte, 23+ pts | 5.5% |
New Hampshire Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Ayotte 18%+ | 10.3% | |
| Ayotte 15-18% | 13.8% | |
| Ayotte 12-15% | 25.5% | |
| Ayotte 9-12% | 18.5% | |
| Ayotte 6-9% | 16.0% | |
| Ayotte 3-6% | 10.5% | |
| Ayotte 0-3% | 4.5% | |
| Warmington 0-3% | 4.5% | |
| Warmington 3-6% | 1.4% | |
| Warmington 6%+ | 3.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Kelly Ayotte: Counted · bid 93.1% / ask 93.2% · $68.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Kelly Ayotte: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 94.5% · $57.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Kelly Ayotte
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
