NH-01 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.0%
- Kalshi
- 94.3%
- Spread
- 0.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.8
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for NH-01 House.
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In New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, childcare policy enters affordability conversation
Context: Both major candidates for NH-01 say childcare costs are a top affordability issue for families in the district, which contains Manchester, the Seacoast, and parts of the Lakes Region.
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Landsman, Conroy compete for Mason-area House seat Nov. 3
The article covers the race for Ohio’s redrawn 1st Congressional District (covers Warren County, Clinton County, and parts of Hamilton County) between incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman and Republican challenger Eric…
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Particle: Kean Faces First‑Time Challenger in Tight Race for New Jersey’s 7th District
The article discusses the New Jersey 7th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Rebecca Bennett for the November 3 election.
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How Longport Became the Jersey Shore’s Quiet Luxury Enclave
DiLorenzo’s long-standing ties to Longport: family history in the town, owning a home since 1987, and a career built on discreet, private deals rather than open market listings.
No story this week names this candidate.
Stefany Shaheen, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DStefany Shaheen | 94.4% | 95.0% | 94.3% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| RAnthony DiLorenzo | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Anthony DiLorenzo
Anthony DiLorenzo is the Republican nominee for New Hampshire's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Stefany Shaheen, a former Portsmouth city councilor and daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
Stefany Shaheen
Stefany Shaheen, a Democrat and former Portsmouth city councilor who is the daughter of U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, is her party's nominee for New Hampshire's open 1st district seat in 2026 against Republican Anthony DiLorenzo.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi4.3K contracts
New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
| Yes | 7.0% implied |
Kalshi23.3K contracts
New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory
| Shaheen, 1+ pts | 91.5% | |
| Shaheen, 4+ pts | 81.0% | |
| Shaheen, 7+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Shaheen, 10+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Shaheen, 13+ pts | 39.0% | |
| Shaheen, 16+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Shaheen, 19+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Shaheen, 22+ pts | 13.6% |
Polymarket$10.1K traded
NH-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 5%+ | 4.1% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.7% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 16.4% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 5.2% | |
| Democrat 25%+ | 4.3% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$49.4K traded
Prices which party wins.
Stefany Shaheen: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 95.3% · $4.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi19.2K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Stefany Shaheen: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 94.6% · $30.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Stefany Shaheen
If the House member sworn in for NH-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.