US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Florida Governor.
The Clintons are back on the midterm campaign circuit: with Bill Clinton heading to Florida to stump for Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly and Hillary Clinton taking to the podcast microphone as the party…
In the race for governor, one poll gives Byron Donalds an 11 point lead, but another shows the race tied. Others have given David Jolly a one to three point lead. So which is it? FOX 13's Craig Patrick reports.
DonaldsLoad comments [...] Donalds did damage control on social media Wednesday ahead of Fishback’s announcement.
DonaldsRepublican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Byron Donalds attends a midterm campaign rally on Oct. 1 in Lakeland. A Stetson University poll shows Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 52% to 41% in Florida’s governor's race.
DonaldsThe financial disclosure reports are the most recent example of how connected Donalds has been with the AI industry.
DonaldsA statewide coalition of pastors, sheriffs, state lawmakers, business owners, educators and civic leaders supporting Byron Donalds for governor and Bryan Ávila for lieutenant governor.
Candidates: Byron Donalds (R) at 46%, David Jolly (D) at 44%; about 10% undecided.
The article discusses how a new leadership mix in Tallahassee, including both new and seasoned lawmakers and a potential new governor, could alter tensions between the governor and the legislature.
David Jolly, a Democratic candidate for Florida governor, is targeting undecided Black voters as a key swing factor in the race.
JollyAmendment 3: Support at about 50%, with undecided voters shaping its fate.
JollyA Stetson University poll (Oct. 1–9) indicates Byron Donalds leads the Florida governor’s race. Donalds has 52% support vs.
David Jolly, the Florida Democratic gubernatorial nominee, is pursuing a moderate, crossover-appeal campaign that positions him as a former Republican who can appeal to swing voters.
JollyThe Miami Select piece reports on Florida political polling relevant to Byron Donalds in the governor’s race context.
DonaldsThe Florida governor race in 2026 features two major candidates: Byron Donalds, backed by Donald Trump, and David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who is running as a Democrat.
DonaldsNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RByron Donalds | 78.7% | 79.5% | 78.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DDavid Jolly | 20.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | 0.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Byron Donalds, a Republican who has represented Florida's 19th congressional district since 2021, won the Republican nomination for Florida governor in August 2026.
David Jolly, a lawyer who represented Florida in the U.S. House as a Republican from 2014 to 2017, is the Democratic nominee for Florida governor in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Florida Governor margin of victory
| Donalds, 1+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Donalds, 3+ pts | 68.5% | |
| Donalds, 6+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Donalds, 9+ pts | 29.0% | |
| Donalds, 12+ pts | 12.5% | |
| Donalds, 15+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Donalds, 18+ pts | 0.6% |
Florida Governor margin of victory
| Jolly, 3+ pts | 7.5% | |
| Jolly, 6+ pts | 3.9% |
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Donalds 18%+ | 3.2% | |
| Donalds 15-18% | 4.8% | |
| Donalds 12-15% | 5.0% | |
| Donalds 9-12% | 15.5% | |
| Donalds 6-9% | 19.5% | |
| Donalds 3-6% | 23.5% | |
| Donalds 0-3% | 19.0% | |
| Jolly 0-3% | 10.4% | |
| Jolly 3-6% | 7.0% | |
| Jolly 6%+ | 4.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Byron Donalds: Counted · bid 79.0% / ask 80.0% · $126.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Byron Donalds: Counted · bid 78.0% / ask 79.0% · $386.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Byron Donalds
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Florida pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
