US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Texas Governor.
Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for Texas governor, staged a public event at the governor’s mansion featuring an empty lectern after Gov. Greg Abbott (R) declined a debate invitation.
HinojosaShe pledges to fire Abbott’s education commissioner, Mike Morath, on day one and to push back against privatization and increased state control of classrooms.
HinojosaRepublican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott will face Democratic challenger, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in the Nov. 3 election. Both candidates have made education issues a pillar of their campaigns.
AbbottLast month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott repeated a claim he’s made for the past five years.
AbbottHarris County commissioners Lesley Briones and Adrian Garcia are seeking reelection this year as two Republican challengers hope to unseat them.
HinojosaShe is a high-profile state representative from Austin with a formidably funded campaign and growing grassroots support, raising over $25 million total, including $13 million in the latest period from about 136,000…
HinojosaDALLAS -- Gov. Greg Abbott said Wednesday he wants the Legislature to put his restrictions on data centers into law next year, rejecting Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa's push for quicker action to rein in the…
AbbottGina Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative from Austin, is challenging Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott.
HinojosaShe would inherit broader governor powers that have expanded under Abbott, but many reforms require legislative approval.
HinojosaGina Hinojosa, the Democratic nominee in the Texas governor’s race, joins The Lead.
HinojosaTexas Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder warns national Democrats are not investing enough in Gina Hinojosa's run for Texas governor. The Democratic Governors Association, chaired by Kentucky Gov.
HinojosaTexas Governor Greg Abbott has edged ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa just before early voting. The Oct. 13 ReconMR poll puts Abbott at 48% and Hinojosa at
AbbottTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, privately admitted last month that Gov.
HinojosaTexas Governor Greg Abbott's reelection campaign took a new blow on Wednesday after leaked audio captured Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general and U.S.
HinojosaODESSA, Texas – Governor Greg Abbott championed Texas’ energy leadership and booming economy during a fireside chat at the University Lands Energy Forum.
AbbottNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGreg Abbott | 76.5% | 76.8% | 75.5% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| DGina Hinojosa | 22.9% | 22.5% | 24.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic member of the Texas House of Representatives since 2017, is challenging Republican Governor Greg Abbott in the 2026 Texas governor's race.
Greg Abbott, a Republican who has been governor of Texas since 2015 and earlier served as state attorney general, is seeking a fourth term in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Texas Governor margin of victory
| Abbott, 1+ pts | 74.0% | |
| Abbott, 3+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Abbott, 6+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Abbott, 9+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Abbott, 12+ pts | 11.1% | |
| Abbott, 15+ pts | 4.0% | |
| Abbott, 18+ pts | 4.6% implied | |
| Abbott, 21+ pts | 3.0% implied |
Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Abbott 18%+ | 3.0% | |
| Abbott 15-18% | 2.9% | |
| Abbott 12-15% | 7.1% | |
| Abbott 9-12% | 12.5% | |
| Abbott 6-9% | 16.5% | |
| Abbott 3-6% | 19.5% | |
| Abbott 0-3% | 18.0% | |
| Hinojosa 0-3% | 12.9% | |
| Hinojosa 3-6% | 8.2% | |
| Hinojosa 6%+ | 6.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Greg Abbott: Counted · bid 76.5% / ask 77.0% · $98.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Greg Abbott: Counted · bid 75.0% / ask 76.0% · $23.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Greg Abbott
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Texas pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
