House · 3 November 2026

NV-02 House 2026

73.3% RDavid Flippo leads TruthIndex™Lean R

Polymarket: 73.0%
Kalshi: 73.5%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.3
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for NV-02 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Cody Whipple does things 'my way.' Can the small-town rancher flip Nevada's bluest House seat? - Mesa Valleys Progress

Summary focused on the user’s query: David Flippo NV-02 House

mvprogress.com21h agoWhipple Buck Flippo

Maloy

Wednesday, Oct 14
Amid ‘time of transition,’ Freedom Caucus sees room to grow its influence
The article discusses the current state and potential growth of the Freedom Caucus as it enters a transitional period, with members like Missouri Rep.

browardtribune.comYesterdayBurlison Flippo Moore
Fraudulent Flippo: “Nevada’s Santos Moment”
Credentials and service: Flippo has faced repeated misrepresentations about military awards (claiming a Bronze Star “for valor” when it was “for service”). He attributes the confusion to staff.

EIN PresswireYesterdayFlippo
🚨 RATINGS CHANGE: Inside Elections Shifts NV-02 in Teresa Benitez-Thompson’s Direction
Inside Elections shifted Nevada’s CD-2 (NV-02) toward Democrats, signaling momentum for Teresa Benitez-Thompson (the likely Democratic candidate).

Democratic Congressional Campaign CommitteeYesterdayFlippo
Is Donald Trump ditching this competitive district in Nevada?
Incumbent Rep. Mark Amodei is set to leave the seat; Democrats aim to flip the conservative district blue.

thenevadannews.comYesterdayFlippo

David Flippo, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RDavid Flippo	73.3%		73.0%	73.5%	0.5 pts	–
DTeresa Benitez-Thompson	26.3%		25.5%	27.0%	1.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/nv-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-nv-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

David Flippo

Republican

David Flippo, a Republican financial advisor and former Air Force lieutenant colonel, is his party's nominee for Nevada's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a former Nevada Assembly majority leader.

Full candidate profile →

Teresa Benitez-Thompson

Democratic

Teresa Benitez-Thompson, a Democrat who served as majority leader of the Nevada Assembly from 2016 to 2022, is her party's nominee for Nevada's open 2nd congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican David Flippo.

Born 1978

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.8K contracts

Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory

Flippo, 1+ pts		70.0%
Flippo, 4+ pts		52.0%
Flippo, 7+ pts		33.0%
Flippo, 10+ pts		15.5%
Flippo, 13+ pts		5.9%
Flippo, 16+ pts		3.3%
Flippo, 19+ pts		4.9% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi44 contracts

Nevada's 2nd District margin of victory

Thompson, 2+ pts		15.0%
Thompson, 5+ pts		5.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.7K traded

NV-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		2.4%
Republican 15-18%		2.5%
Republican 12-15%		2.3%
Republican 9-12%		12.0%
Republican 6-9%		15.5%
Republican 3-6%		33.5%
Republican 0-3%		16.0%
Democrat 0-3%		17.8%
Democrat 3-6%		1.0%
Democrat 6%+		8.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$41.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

David Flippo: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 74.0% · $26.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi88.4K contracts traded