Updated Oct 30, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
3 November 2026 · Battlegrounds
Competitive House Races 2026
36 districts rated Toss-up or Lean where neither party holds a commanding lead. Ranked in real time by competitiveness on the TruthIndex™.
36 battlegrounds
Key races to watch
WI-01 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RBryan Steil
50.4%
DMitchell Berman
48.9%
Polymarket 51.0% · Kalshi 49.5% · 1.5 pts apart
SC-01 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RJenny Costa Honeycutt
52.6%
DNancy Lacore
46.5%
Polymarket 53.0% · Kalshi 52.5% · 0.5 pts apart
PA-01 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
DBob Harvie
53.1%
RBrian Fitzpatrick
45.4%
Polymarket 55.0% · Kalshi 52.5% · 2.5 pts apart
ME-02 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RPaul LePage
54.4%
DMatthew Dunlap
44.7%
Polymarket 53.5% · Kalshi 55.5% · 2.0 pts apart
KY-06 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
DZach Dembo
55.5%
RRalph Alvarado
43.6%
Polymarket 55.5% · Kalshi 55.5% · 0.5 pts apart
AL-02 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RRhett Marques
56.2%
DShomari Figures
43.8%
Polymarket 55.5% · Kalshi 56.5% · 1.0 pts apart
TX-23 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RBrandon Herrera
56.4%
DKaty Padilla Stout
43.4%
Polymarket 56.0% · Kalshi 56.5% · 0.5 pts apart
NC-03 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
RGreg Murphy
57.4%
DRaymond Smith Jr.
43.5%
Polymarket 55.5% · Kalshi 57.5% · 2.0 pts apart
MT-01 HouseToss-up
TruthIndex™
DSam Forstag
57.5%
RAaron Flint
43.9%
Polymarket 57.5% · Kalshi 57.5% · 3.0 pts apart
Full battleground ranking
All competitive districts
| Contest | Leader | Rating | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | 7 days | Volume | Trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | RBryan Steil | Toss-up | 50.4% | 51.0% | 49.5% | 1.5 pts | −3.3 | −6.4 | 185.5K | ||
| SC-01 | RJenny Costa Honeycutt | Toss-up | 52.6% | 53.0% | 52.5% | 0.5 pts | −9.7 | −8.4 | 395.7K | ||
| PA-01 | DBob Harvie | Toss-up | 53.1% | 55.0% | 52.5% | 2.5 pts | +3.4 | +13.5 | 522.6K | ||
| ME-02 | RPaul LePage | Toss-up | 54.4% | 53.5% | 55.5% | 2.0 pts | −1.8 | −0.1 | 348.5K | ||
| KY-06 | DZach Dembo | Toss-up | 55.5% | 55.5% | 55.5% | 0.5 pts | 0.0 | +9.0 | 352.3K | ||
| AL-02 | RRhett Marques | Toss-up | 56.2% | 55.5% | 56.5% | 1.0 pts | −1.0 | −13.8 | 698.4K | ||
| TX-23 | RBrandon Herrera | Toss-up | 56.4% | 56.0% | 56.5% | 0.5 pts | −1.1 | −4.9 | 865.4K | ||
| NC-03 | RGreg Murphy | Toss-up | 57.4% | 55.5% | 57.5% | 2.0 pts | −3.0 | −21.2 | 798.9K | ||
| MT-01 | DSam Forstag | Toss-up | 57.5% | 57.5% | 57.5% | 3.0 pts | +12.0 | +11.9 | 960.4K | ||
| CO-05 | RJeff Crank | Toss-up | 57.9% | 56.5% | 58.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.2 | −10.6 | 266.4K | ||
| MI-04 | DSean McCann | Toss-up | 59.3% | 60.0% | 58.5% | 2.0 pts | +1.4 | −3.3 | 186.1K | ||
| VA-05 | RJohn McGuire | Toss-up | 60.0% | 58.5% | 60.5% | 2.0 pts | +2.3 | −2.0 | 1.1M | ||
| NV-02 | RDavid Flippo | Lean R | 60.4% | 60.0% | 60.5% | 1.5 pts | −0.5 | −2.2 | 240.3K | ||
| NY-17 | DCait Conley | Lean D | 62.0% | 63.5% | 61.5% | 2.0 pts | +1.1 | +1.1 | 757.8K | ||
| OH-15 | RMike Carey | Lean R | 62.3% | 61.5% | 62.5% | 1.0 pts | −0.9 | −1.2 | 172.6K | ||
| CO-04 | RLauren Boebert | Lean R | 62.4% | 62.0% | 62.5% | 1.0 pts | −1.6 | −8.9 | 292.4K | ||
| MN-01 | RBrad Finstad | Lean R | 62.5% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts | 0.0 | −2.9 | 480.3K | ||
| CO-03 | RJeff Hurd | Lean R | 63.1% | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts | −1.0 | −6.1 | 166.9K | ||
| MO-02 | RAnn Wagner | Lean R | 63.8% | 61.5% | 64.5% | 3.0 pts | +0.3 | −0.4 | 413.9K | ||
| VA-01 | DShannon Taylor | Lean D | 64.2% | 64.0% | 64.5% | 1.5 pts | −0.8 | +0.8 | 522.8K | ||
| AZ-02 | REli Crane | Lean R | 64.6% | 65.5% | 64.5% | 1.0 pts | −3.8 | −1.7 | 178.4K | ||
| NY-21 | RAnthony Constantino | Lean R | 64.9% | 63.5% | 65.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.6 | −1.3 | 317.0K | ||
| FL-27 | RMaría Elvira Salazar | Lean R | 65.3% | 64.5% | 65.5% | 1.0 pts | −0.1 | −0.4 | 211.6K | ||
| OH-10 | RMike Turner | Lean R | 66.4% | 66.0% | 66.5% | 0.5 pts | −4.3 | −2.7 | 296.0K | ||
| FL-07 | RRyan Elijah | Lean R | 66.5% | 66.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts | −7.7 | −3.0 | 187.2K | ||
| NC-13 | RBrad Knott | Lean R | 66.9% | 67.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts | +6.3 | −13.1 | 536.4K | ||
| FL-13 | RAnna Paulina Luna | Lean R | 67.5% | 67.5% | 67.5% | 0.5 pts | −4.4 | −4.8 | 136.2K | ||
| FL-09 | RDan Green | Lean R | 67.5% | 67.5% | 67.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.4 | −1.4 | 133.3K | ||
| NC-09 | RRichard Hudson | Lean R | 68.1% | 67.0% | 68.5% | 2.0 pts | −0.6 | −9.7 | 685.5K | ||
| NJ-02 | RJeff Van Drew | Lean R | 68.9% | 67.5% | 70.5% | 3.0 pts | −1.2 | −10.6 | 523.4K | ||
| FL-22 | DPia Dandiya | Lean D | 71.0% | 72.0% | 70.5% | 2.5 pts | −0.1 | +10.0 | 252.0K | ||
| FL-14 | DKathy Castor | Lean D | 71.9% | 73.5% | 71.5% | 2.0 pts | +0.9 | +4.1 | 607.7K | ||
| MI-10 | DChristina Hines | Lean D | 72.2% | 73.0% | 71.5% | 1.5 pts | +3.0 | +1.2 | 78.3K | ||
| IA-02 | DLindsay James | Lean D | 72.4% | 72.0% | 72.5% | 0.5 pts | +1.2 | +0.4 | 198.8K | ||
| TX-35 | DJohnny Garcia | Lean D | 72.6% | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 pts | +2.7 | +5.3 | 431.8K | ||
| NC-14 | RTim Moore | Lean R | 74.5% | 74.0% | 74.5% | 1.0 pts | −1.0 | −15.0 | 95.7K |