US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-17 House.
Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler made their case to voters to represent the Hudson Valley in Congress during their second and final debate for New York’s 17th Congressional District.
“I don’t think those types of folks belong in Congress, and I don’t believe that people who condone that type of behavior belong in Congress either,” Conley declared.
Cait Conley delivered the jaw-dropping burn this week, becoming the second Democratic congressional candidate to publicly distance themselves from Hochul ahead of next month’s midterms.
ConleyNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCait Conley | 59.3% | 58.5% | 60.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| RMike Lawler | 40.5% | 40.5% | 40.5% | 0.0 pts | – |
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Cait Conley, a Democrat and former Army officer who led election security work at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faces Republican incumbent Mike Lawler for New York's 17th congressional district in 2026.
Mike Lawler, a Republican who has represented New York's 17th congressional district since 2023, faces Democrat Cait Conley, a former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency senior advisor, in his 2026 re-election race.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 17th District margin of victory
| Lawler, 3+ pts | 28.0% | |
| Lawler, 6+ pts | 16.0% | |
| Lawler, 9+ pts | 8.3% |
New York's 17th District margin of victory
| Conley, 1+ pts | 52.0% | |
| Conley, 3+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Conley, 6+ pts | 28.0% | |
| Conley, 9+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Conley, 12+ pts | 7.1% | |
| Conley, 15+ pts | 7.7% implied |
NY-17 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 3.0% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 1.3% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 2.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 4.6% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 22.1% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 26.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 4.2% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 6.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Cait Conley: Counted · bid 58.0% / ask 59.0% · $38.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Cait Conley: Counted · bid 60.0% / ask 61.0% · $26.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Cait Conley
If the House member sworn in for NY-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
