nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CO-05 House 2026

76.2% RJeff Crank leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
74.5%
Kalshi
76.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+2.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CO-05 House.

  1. With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Republican seats with veterans’ help

    The Anchorage Daily News story profiles Colorado’s 5th Congressional District race, where Democratic veteran-backed candidate Jessica Killin is challenging incumbent Republican Jeff Crank in a conservative-leaning seat…

    Anchorage Daily NewsGrayKillinCrankAlso in Newser
  2. Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

    Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

    insidepoliticalmoney.comJamesGrayBuckhoutCammackCiscomaniCrankConroyOrdenFleischmannHinesSteil
  3. With anger spreading over Iran war, Democrats hope to flip Republican seats with veterans' help | National

    Jessica Killin is challenging longtime Republican Rep. Jeff Crank in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District (CO-05).

    Greenville ReflectorGrayKillin
  4. Rep. Crow hits $3 million cash mark for fifth CD 6 term while avoiding corporate PAC funds

    Campaign status: Jason Crow’s re-election campaign for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District raised $653,314 in the most recent quarter, bringing cash on hand to about $3 million.

    Sentinel ColoradoKillinCrow
  5. Victor’s Marx-isms Day 4: “Am I still radioactive?": Colorado Democratic Party

    The Colorado Democratic Party accuses all Republican statewide and congressional candidates of supporting “Marx” and highlights that Rep.

    coloradodems.orgCrank

Jeff Crank, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJeff Crank 76.2% 74.5% 76.5% 2.0 pts –
DJessica Killin 24.6% 25.5% 24.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jeff Crank

Jeff Crank

Republican U.S. Representative for Colorado's 5th congressional district (since 2025)

Jeff Crank, a Republican and former radio show host who has represented Colorado's 5th congressional district since 2025, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Jessica Killin, a former chief of staff to Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff.

Born 1967 · Pueblo, Colorado

Jessica Killin

Democratic

Jessica Killin, a former chief of staff to Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, is the Democratic nominee for Colorado's 5th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Jeff Crank in the November 3 general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi15.4K contracts

Colorado's 5th District margin of victory

Crank, 1+ pts
70.0%
Crank, 4+ pts
54.0%
Crank, 7+ pts
32.0%
Crank, 10+ pts
20.5%
Crank, 13+ pts
13.0%
Crank, 16+ pts
5.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi10.5K contracts

Colorado's 5th District margin of victory

Killin, 2+ pts
16.0%
Killin, 5+ pts
9.6%
Killin, 8+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.0K traded

CO-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+
8.4%
Republican 9-12%
5.5%
Republican 6-9%
20.0%
Republican 3-6%
20.5%
Republican 0-3%
16.5%
Democrat 0-3%
14.5%
Democrat 3-6%
7.4%
Democrat 6-9%
7.8%
Democrat 9-12%
8.0%
Democrat 12%+
3.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$21.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jeff Crank: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $5.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi90.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jeff Crank: Counted · bid 76.0% / ask 77.0% · $32.2K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jeff Crank

If the House member sworn in for CO-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Colorado

  1. Colorado SenateD99%
  2. Colorado GovernorD97%
  3. CO-01 HouseD98%
  4. CO-02 HouseD98%
  5. CO-03 HouseR72%
  6. CO-04 HouseR73%
  7. CO-06 HouseD97%
  8. CO-07 HouseD98%