US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Wyoming Senate.
In his text message to the WTE, Gray said, “I’m focused on meeting voters and discussing Wyoming’s future and the key issues: unleashing our energy industry, affordability, health care, securing the border and getting…
Harriet Hageman is the Republican candidate for Wyoming’s U.S. Senate in the 2026 general election. A fourth-generation Wyomingite from Douglas, she has represented Wyoming in the U.S. House for the past 3.5 years.
HagemanSCI-PAC endorses Harriet Hageman for U.S. Senate in Wyoming. The Safari Club International Political Action Committee, a prominent sportsmen-led PAC, announces its support for Hageman (R-WY At Large).
HagemanThe Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.
There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
Topic: Wyoming politicians’ reaction to a proposed oil deal with Russia advocated by President Trump.
ByrdNFIB endorses Rep. Harriet Hageman for U.S. Senate from Wyoming, highlighting her proven support for small-business interests and a 100% NFIB voting record.
ByrdJames W. Byrd is a Democratic candidate campaigning for the U.S. Senate in Wyoming. In Worland (Oct.
ByrdThe Deseret News article discusses U.S. livestock predation by protected predators (notably wolves) and legislative efforts to address ranchers’ losses.
HagemanHarriet Hageman suggests that upcoming election results could quickly resolve major political stalemates. She claims issues like Congressional gridlock, U.S.
HagemanJames W. Byrd is a candidate in the Wyoming U.S. Senate race featured in Thermopolis Independent Record’s coverage for the 2026 General Election.
Byrd“We’re the ones that are supposed to be drafting and passing the laws, not unelected bureaucrats, not regulatory agencies,” she said.
Jim Byrd supports our state’s rights to control our own elections while Rep. Harriet Hageman has supported federal interference in those rights including the handing over of our voter data to the Department of Justice.
HagemanThe article reports a divided response from Wyoming politicians to a proposed oil deal with Russia promoted by President Trump. U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Gov.
The article reports heavy political advertising in Wyoming ahead of the Aug. 18 primary, with Sheridan County voters receiving 4–15 mailers daily pushing or opposing candidates in races including the U.S.
ByrdThe article features Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (Wyoming) on the campaign trail, noting that he expects Senate Majority Leader John Thune to remain in leadership.
ByrdA Wyoming judge upheld the Secretary of State’s decision to keep a Cheyenne man, Victor Miller, and his AI chatbot, VIC, off the November U.S. Senate ballot.
ByrdNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RHarriet Hageman | 98.5% | 98.4% | 98.5% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DJames W. Byrd | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Republican U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large district since 2023 and the Republican nominee for Wyoming's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026.
James W. Byrd, a Democrat who represented the 44th district in the Wyoming House from 2009 to 2019, is his party's 2026 nominee for U.S. Senate in Wyoming.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Wyoming Senate margin of victory
| Hageman, 26+ pts | 94.8% | |
| Hageman, 28+ pts | 90.0% | |
| Hageman, 30+ pts | 86.5% | |
| Hageman, 32+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Hageman, 34+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Hageman, 36+ pts | 56.0% | |
| Hageman, 38+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Hageman, 40+ pts | 37.5% | |
| Hageman, 42+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Hageman, 44+ pts | 20.0% | |
| Hageman, 46+ pts | 13.7% |
Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.1% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 0.6% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 1.6% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 4.3% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 5.3% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 15.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 21.5% | |
| Republican 45-50% | – | |
| Republican 50%+ | 6.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Harriet Hageman: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 99.4% · $4.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Harriet Hageman: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 99.5% · $12.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Harriet Hageman
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Wyoming for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
