Top story
America's Reddest State No Longer Considered Safe For GOP
The article discusses Lisa Kinney, the Democratic nominee for Wyoming’s at-large (WY-AL) House seat, who won her primary with 9,344 votes (76.5%).
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
WY-AL House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.0%
- Kalshi
- 96.8%
- Spread
- 0.8 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −1.7
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for WY-AL House.
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With No Chuck Gray At U.S. House Debate, Opponents Offer Anyone-But-Chuck Options
Lisa Kinney, the Democratic nominee for Wyoming’s U.S. House seat, spoke at the Riverton High School debate in October 2026 in Chuck Gray’s absence.
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Voter's Guide - US Representative - 2026 General Election
Background highlights: Former Wyoming Secretary of State; state legislator who sponsored voter ID; State Land Board member focused on public lands and multiple use.
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Suspicious letter at Wyoming Capitol declared a hoax
A suspicious letter sent to Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray’s office was determined to be a hoax.
kgab.com
Gray -
DOJ to Deploy Election Monitors in Wyoming for November General Election
The Department of Justice plans to deploy election monitors in Wyoming for the November general election.
hyperlocalloop.comGray -
Wyoming Highway Patrol Investigating "Threatening" Letter To Elections Office
Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray confirmed that a threatening letter addressed to his elections office prompted the Wyoming Highway Patrol to investigate.
Cowboy State DailyGray
No story this week names this candidate.
Chuck Gray, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RChuck Gray | 96.3% | 96.0% | 96.8% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DLisa Kinney | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Chuck Gray
Republican Secretary of State of Wyoming (since 2023)
Chuck Gray, a Republican who has served as Wyoming Secretary of State since 2023, is his party's nominee for Wyoming's open at-large U.S. House seat in 2026 against Democrat Lisa Kinney, a former state Senate minority leader.
Lisa Kinney
Democratic
Lisa Kinney, a Democratic attorney who served as minority leader of the Wyoming Senate from 1992 to 1994, faces Republican Secretary of State Chuck Gray for Wyoming's open at-large U.S. House seat in 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.7K contracts
Wyoming margin of victory
| Gray, 25+ pts | 86.0% | |
| Gray, 28+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Gray, 31+ pts | 56.5% | |
| Gray, 34+ pts | 42.5% | |
| Gray, 37+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Gray, 40+ pts | 14.0% | |
| Gray, 43+ pts | 6.0% | |
| Gray, 46+ pts | 6.3% implied | |
| Gray, 49+ pts | 4.9% implied |
Polymarket$13.2K traded
WY-AL House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.1% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 5.7% | |
| Republican 10-20% | 10.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 10.8% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 11.9% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 22.0% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 6.1% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 4.0% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$51.1K traded
Prices which party wins.
Chuck Gray: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 97.6% · $1.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi10.5K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Chuck Gray: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 98.4% · $984 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Chuck Gray
If the House member sworn in for WY-AL for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Wyoming
- Wyoming SenateR98%
- Wyoming GovernorR98%