Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Colorado: Proposition 135 (underage transgender surgeries ban)

66.5% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Lean Yes

Polymarket: 67.0%
Kalshi: 58.5%
Spread: 8.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +3.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	66.5%		67.0%	58.5%	8.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban/embed.html" title="Colorado: Proposition 135 (underage transgender surgeries ban): live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=ballot-measures-colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/ballot-measures/colorado-proposition-135-underage-transgender-surgeries-ban/card-landscape.png" alt="Colorado: Proposition 135 (underage transgender surgeries ban): odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Each venue's market

Polymarket$474 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 65.0% / ask 69.0% · $1.6K within 5 pts

Colorado Initiative 110 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would prohibit healthcare professionals from providing surgeries to minors for the purpose of altering biological sex characteristics and prohibit state and federal funding from being used for these procedures. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Colorado statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Colorado, including the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi495 contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 54.0% / ask 63.0% · $110 within 5 pts

If Proposition 135 (Initiative #110) passes in Colorado, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi