US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for CO-04 House.
Rep. Lauren Boebert shared a video on X from Speaker Mike Johnson, who described the upcoming election as a contrast between “common sense and crazy” and said Boebert is on the side of common sense.
BoebertDemocrats had always planned to target the 8th District, a swing seat that Republican Gabe Evans narrowly flipped two years ago.
Baisley highlighted Trump accounts as a check on Social Security solvency while Hickenlooper said we can’t wait decades for solutions and higher earners need to pay more.
Boebart op-ed on ZIP codes: Rep. Lauren Boebert said in an op-ed that Congress should pass her bipartisan bill, H.R.
BoebertImage 2: Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert and Democratic challenger Eileen Laubacher field questions from moderator Kyle Clark during a 4th Congressional District debate at 9News in Denver
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLauren Boebert | 72.9% | 71.5% | 74.5% | 3.0 pts | – | |
| DEileen Laubacher | 27.6% | 28.5% | 26.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Eileen Laubacher, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who served on the National Security Council under President Joe Biden, is the Democratic nominee challenging Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert in Colorado's 4th congressional district in 2026.
Lauren Boebert, a Republican who has represented Colorado's 4th congressional district since 2025 after representing the 3rd district from 2021 to 2025, faces Democrat Eileen Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Colorado's 4th District margin of victory
| Boebert, 2+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Boebert, 5+ pts | 40.0% | |
| Boebert, 8+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Boebert, 11+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Boebert, 14+ pts | 8.0% |
Colorado's 4th District margin of victory
| Laubacher, 1+ pts | 21.0% | |
| Laubacher, 4+ pts | 8.6% | |
| Laubacher, 7+ pts | 5.0% | |
| Laubacher, 10+ pts | 5.9% implied |
CO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 5.2% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 12.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 15.3% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 18.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 20.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | – | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 4.9% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 5.2% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 5.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Lauren Boebert: Counted · bid 71.0% / ask 72.0% · $39.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Lauren Boebert: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $35.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Lauren Boebert
If the House member sworn in for CO-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
