House · 3 November 2026

CO-08 House 2026

84.4% DManny Rutinel leads TruthIndex™Likely D

Polymarket: 84.0%
Kalshi: 84.5%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CO-08 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Morning Digest: A toxic GOP nominee for governor has Democrats eyeing Boebert for defeat

Democrats had always planned to target the 8th District, a swing seat that Republican Gabe Evans narrowly flipped two years ago.

The Downballot5h ago

Laubacher

Evans

Boebert

Yesterday
New Legislation Would Expand LRP Insurance for Cattle Producers
A smaller cattle herd can contribute to market volatility and limit the industry’s ability to respond quickly to demand.

northernag.net23h agoEvans
This Week in Marxism: Victor Marx is "Crazy with a K"
Now that Cajun Karate Master Victor Marx is officially the Republican nominee for Governor of Colorado, it’s time to return to a segment we began in October 2025 that we call “This Week in Marxism.”

coloradopols.com23h agoEvans Marx
Colorado Rep Offers ‘More Beef, Lower Prices Act’ To Spur Herd Growth
Congressman Gabe Evans (R-Colo.) has introduced the “More Beef, Lower Prices Act,” which aims to help grow the nation’s historically small cattle herd by extending federal agriculture risk protections to ranchers and…

meatingplace.comYesterdayEvans

Manny Rutinel, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DManny Rutinel	84.4%		84.0%	84.5%	0.5 pts	–
RGabe Evans	15.5%		15.5%	15.5%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/co-08/embed.html" title="CO-08 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/co-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-co-08">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/co-08/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-co-08"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/co-08/card-landscape.png" alt="CO-08 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Gabe Evans

Republican U.S. Representative for Colorado's 8th congressional district (since 2025)

Gabe Evans, a Republican former law enforcement officer and U.S. Army officer who has represented Colorado's 8th congressional district since 2025, faces Democrat Manny Rutinel, a former state representative, in the 2026 election.

Born 1986

Full candidate profile →

Manny Rutinel

Democratic

Manny Rutinel, a Democratic attorney who represented the 32nd district in the Colorado House of Representatives from 2023 to 2026, is challenging Republican incumbent Gabe Evans for Colorado's 8th congressional district in 2026.

Born 1994 · Los Angeles, California

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi338 contracts

Colorado's 8th District margin of victory

Evans, 1+ pts		14.0%
Evans, 4+ pts		5.9%
Evans, 7+ pts		3.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi3.2K contracts

Colorado's 8th District margin of victory

Rutinel, 2+ pts		79.0%
Rutinel, 5+ pts		61.0%
Rutinel, 8+ pts		49.5%
Rutinel, 11+ pts		33.5%
Rutinel, 14+ pts		21.5%
Rutinel, 17+ pts		11.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.1K traded

CO-08 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 3%+		2.2%
Republican 0-3%		–
Democrat 0-3%		–
Democrat 3-6%		16.5%
Democrat 6-9%		19.5%
Democrat 9-12%		14.1%
Democrat 12-15%		16.0%
Democrat 15-18%		–
Democrat 18-21%		3.0%
Democrat 21%+		4.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$25.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Manny Rutinel: Counted · bid 83.0% / ask 85.0% · $5.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi33.8K contracts traded