nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

CO-06 House 2026

96.9% DJason Crow leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.2%
Kalshi
98.1%
Spread
1.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for CO-06 House.

  1. Dem leaders Phil Weiser, Jason Crow endorse Omar Montgomery for Aurora mayor

    Jason Crow (CO-06) endorsed Omar Montgomery in the Aurora mayoral race. In a press release, Crow praised Montgomery as a servant leader who listens to the community, fights for working families, and champions government…

    Sentinel ColoradoCrow
  2. Colorado Democrats Hit the Road in Greeley to Kick Off Six-Day Statewide Bus Tour: Colorado Democratic Party

    U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse joined Colorado Democrats in Greeley to kick off a six-day statewide bus tour ahead of elections.

    coloradodems.orgNeguseCrow
  3. Rep. Crow hits $3 million cash mark for fifth CD 6 term while avoiding corporate PAC funds

    Campaign status: Jason Crow’s re-election campaign for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District raised $653,314 in the most recent quarter, bringing cash on hand to about $3 million.

    Sentinel ColoradoKillinCrow
  4. Houthis bet they can outlast Trump

    The Politico piece, titled "Houthis bet they can outlast Trump," references a National Security-focused newsletter and mentions a University of Chicago Institute of Politics event at 1:30 p.m. featuring Rep.

    PoliticoCrow
  5. Douglas County Election Notebook: The State Charged Tim Dietz's Campaign Over Its Yard Signs and Agreed to Settle, Boebert's Order Holds, and Marx's Refund Day Arrives

    The Douglas County Election Notebook covers campaign finance and recent developments in Colorado’s CD-6 races, with a focus on Representative Jason Crow.

    discoverdougco.comCrow
More coverage 3
  1. Tavares Earns $204,657 From Two Sunday Banana Victories at Americas Cardroom

    The page discusses Jason Clark, identified as Chief Marketing Officer, in connection with Americas Cardroom.

    accessnewswire.comClarkAlso in FinancialContent
  2. The Rocket Creates Snooker History with Historic 153 Break.

    Jason Clark reports that The Rocket (likely Ronnie O’Sullivan) achieved a historic 153 break in snooker, marking a notable milestone. The article highlights this achievement as a significant moment in snooker history.

    gamestoday.ukClark
  3. Texas Prisons Launch Book Portal: What Families Need to Know

    The article reports that Texas prisons have launched a Book Portal, modeled after the Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) visitation system.

    docklinemagazine.comClark

Jason Crow, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DJason Crow 96.9% 96.2% 98.1% 1.9 pts –
RJason Clark 3.7% 3.8% 1.9% 1.8 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Jason Clark

Republican

Jason Clark, a small business owner and financial advisor, is the Republican nominee for Colorado's 6th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Jason Crow in the November 3 general election.

Jason Crow

Jason Crow

Democratic U.S. Representative for Colorado's 6th congressional district (since 2019)

Jason Crow, a Democrat and former U.S. Army Ranger who has represented Colorado's 6th congressional district since 2019, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican Jason Clark, a small business owner and financial advisor.

Born 1979 · Madison, Wisconsin

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.7K contracts

Colorado's 6th District margin of victory

Crow, 18+ pts
96.2%
Crow, 21+ pts
94.4%
Crow, 24+ pts
89.1%
Crow, 27+ pts
81.5%
Crow, 30+ pts
70.5%
Crow, 33+ pts
57.0%
Crow, 36+ pts
29.0%
Crow, 39+ pts
22.5%
Crow, 42+ pts
12.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.4K traded

CO-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.3%
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Democrat 5-15%
0.1%
Democrat 15-20%
4.9%
Democrat 20-25%
5.8%
Democrat 25-30%
20.5%
Democrat 30-35%
34.0%
Democrat 35-40%
32.5%
Democrat 40-45%
1.9%
Democrat 45%+
4.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$32.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Jason Crow: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.0% · $971 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi988 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Jason Crow: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.7% · $558 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Jason Crow

If the House member sworn in for CO-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Colorado

  1. Colorado SenateD99%
  2. Colorado GovernorD97%
  3. CO-01 HouseD98%
  4. CO-02 HouseD98%
  5. CO-03 HouseR72%
  6. CO-04 HouseR73%
  7. CO-05 HouseR76%
  8. CO-07 HouseD98%