CO-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 72.5%
- Kalshi
- 70.5%
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.7
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for CO-03 House.
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ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
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New Dems look to boost ranks and build clout
The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund is taking big swings in hopes of a Democratic majority in the House.
Roll Call
Hurd -
Democrats keep expanding their battleground map. History suggests it’s a mirage
Florida’s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who has distanced herself from Trump’s deportation policies.
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Jeff Hurd's First 2026 Ad is Utter Nonsense
The GOP-led effort falls short of a different measure that a bipartisan group of lawmakers have been working on for years.
coloradopols.comHurd -
Dems expand effort to flip House seats held by GOP with six more targets
The provided content does not mention Jacqueline Auringer or NY-18. If you were looking for information specifically about Jacqueline Auringer (NY-18), this source does not appear to cover that candidate or district.
More coverage 1
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Democrats expand their battleground map. History suggests it’s a mirage
Dwayne Romero, a Republican Army veteran, is challenging incumbent Democrat Rep. Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District (CO-03).
No story this week names this candidate.
Jeff Hurd, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJeff Hurd | 71.8% | 72.5% | 70.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DDwayne Romero | 29.0% | 28.5% | 30.0% | 1.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Dwayne Romero
Dwayne Romero, a real estate company CEO and U.S. Army officer, is the Democratic nominee for Colorado's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Jeff Hurd in the November 3 general election.
Jeff Hurd
Jeff Hurd, a Republican lawyer who has represented Colorado's 3rd congressional district since 2025, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate company CEO and U.S. Army officer.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi14.3K contracts
Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory
| Hurd, 1+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Hurd, 3+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Hurd, 6+ pts | 26.0% | |
| Hurd, 9+ pts | 12.7% | |
| Hurd, 12+ pts | 5.7% | |
| Hurd, 15+ pts | 3.3% | |
| Hurd, 18+ pts | 5.1% implied |
Kalshi3.8K contracts
Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory
| Romero, 3+ pts | 17.0% | |
| Romero, 6+ pts | 6.7% |
Polymarket$27.2K traded
CO-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 3.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 8.3% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 20.8% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 20.8% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 15.0% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 7.5% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 3.3% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 1.0% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$22.5K traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeff Hurd: Counted · bid 72.0% / ask 73.0% · $55.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi68.8K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Jeff Hurd: Counted · bid 70.0% / ask 71.0% · $29.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jeff Hurd
If the House member sworn in for CO-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
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