Top story
Little leads in fundraising
Candidate for governor Terri Pickens smiles as she speaks with voters.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026
Idaho Governor 2026
- Polymarket
- 97.5%
- Kalshi
- 97.1%
- Spread
- 0.5 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.5
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Idaho Governor.
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North Idaho hunters find success on opening weekend
In April, Idaho Governor Brad Little signed House Bill 652 into law, designating hunting as the official sport of Idaho.
Coeur d'Alene Press
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Little sets record for campaign fundraising as election draw...
Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little announced Wednesday his campaign had reached a new high in campaign contributions at $2.4 million, breaking the record for a statewide candidate set by his previous campaign in 2022.
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A Vote for Idaho’s Brad Little is a Vote for Sanity
Share on Twitter [...] ### He's Not Flashy and He Doesn't Need to Be
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Idaho General Fund revenue exceeds forecast by $90 million in first quarter | Local News
Governor Brad Little recently announced that Idaho’s economy continues to show signs of strength as General Fund revenue exceeded the state’s forecast by $90.3 million, or 6.8%, during the first quarter of fiscal year…
Rexburg Standard JournalLittle
More coverage 3
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Brad Little announces record-breaking campaign fundraising
Idaho Gov. Brad Little’s campaign has broken the fundraising record for a statewide candidate’s reelection, his campaign announced Wednesday. That record was previously set by his 2022 campaign.
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Idaho suspends dyed diesel inspections for 30 days during harvest
BOISE: Idaho Gov. Brad Little signed an executive order Friday temporarily suspending state inspections for dyed diesel fuel for 30 days as state agencies
kvnutalk.comLittle -
These states could elect their first female governors this year | Entertainment
Republican Stacy Garrity received the most votes for any statewide candidate in Pennsylvania history when she was reelected state treasurer in 2024, with more than 3.5 million votes.
thederrick.com
Pickens
No story this week names this candidate.
Brad Little, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBrad Little | 97.3% | 97.5% | 97.1% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| DTerri Pickens | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Brad Little
Republican Governor of Idaho (since 2019)
Republican governor of Idaho since 2019 and former lieutenant governor, seeking a third term in 2026 against Democratic attorney Terri Pickens.
Terri Pickens
Democratic
Terri Pickens, an attorney who was the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor in 2022, is challenging Republican Governor Brad Little in Idaho's 2026 governor's race.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi2.5K contracts
Idaho Governor margin of victory
| Little, 15+ pts | 87.2% | |
| Little, 18+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Little, 21+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Little, 24+ pts | 49.0% | |
| Little, 27+ pts | 33.5% | |
| Little, 30+ pts | 20.0% | |
| Little, 33+ pts | 10.8% | |
| Little, 36+ pts | 4.8% | |
| Little, 39+ pts | 6.4% implied | |
| Little, 42+ pts | 5.1% implied |
Polymarket$25.5K traded
Idaho Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.4% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 2.3% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 4.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 28.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 30.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 4.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | – | |
| Republican 45-50% | 5.3% | |
| Republican 50%+ | 4.1% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$26.7K traded
Prices which party wins.
Brad Little: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 98.2% · $3.4K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi8.5K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Brad Little: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.8% · $3.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Brad Little
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Idaho
- Idaho SenateR95%
- ID-01 HouseR96%
- ID-02 HouseR96%