House · 3 November 2026

ID-02 House 2026

95.8% RMike Simpson leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.4%
Kalshi: 96.4%
Spread: 1.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Mike Simpson, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMike Simpson	95.8%		95.4%	96.4%	0.9 pts	–
DEllie Gilbreath	3.7%		3.7%	2.5%	1.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/id-02/embed.html" title="ID-02 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/id-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-id-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/id-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-id-02"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/id-02/card-landscape.png" alt="ID-02 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Mike Simpson

Republican U.S. Representative for Idaho's 2nd congressional district (since 1999)

Mike Simpson, a Republican who has represented Idaho's 2nd congressional district since 1999, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Ellie Gilbreath, Libertarian Will Johanson, Constitution Party candidate Carta Sierra and two independents.

Born 1950 · Burley

Full candidate profile →

Ellie Gilbreath

Democratic

Ellie Gilbreath is a Democratic candidate for the US House in Idaho's 2nd congressional district (ID-02) in 2026.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi898 contracts

Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory

Simpson, 9+ pts		91.0%
Simpson, 12+ pts		81.0%
Simpson, 15+ pts		70.5%
Simpson, 18+ pts		56.5%
Simpson, 21+ pts		40.5%
Simpson, 24+ pts		26.5%
Simpson, 27+ pts		15.5%
Simpson, 30+ pts		7.6%
Simpson, 33+ pts		4.0%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.9K traded

ID-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		1.0%
Republican 0-5%		1.0%
Republican 5-10%		2.9%
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 15-20%		35.0%
Republican 20-25%		29.5%
Republican 25-30%		2.8%
Republican 30-35%		10.0%
Republican 35%+		0.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$39.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mike Simpson: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 96.6% · $643 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi5.2K contracts traded