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The article discusses Swiss politician David Roth, a Social Democratic National Councilor from Lucerne.
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RothUpdated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026
Idaho Senate 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.9%
- Kalshi
- 95.4%
- Spread
- 0.5 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.9
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Idaho Senate.
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Candidates weigh in on federal public lands
The Lewiston Tribune asked U.S. Senate candidates Jim Risch (R) and Todd Achilles (I), of Idaho, and U.S. House candidates Russ Fulcher (R) and Kaylee
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Here are the farmers and ranchers in Congress
Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.
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The Senate state of play: An updated handicapping for mid-October 2026
The continued refusal of Alani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee, to defer to Independent Seth Bodnar makes this race essentially unwinnable for Democrats.
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Baumgartner, Conroy both skeptical of Trump’s deal to buy Ru...
On Tuesday, a group of senators – six Republicans and six Democrats – sent Trump a letter calling the deal with Putin “a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies” and asking the American president to rescind…
dnews.com
Risch -
Tracking the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in 2026
The Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.
More coverage 11
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Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates
There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
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The married lesbian couple running a joint campaign to unseat Idaho's most powerful GOP lawmakers
Topic: Darline Graham Nordone and her political activity as part of a married lesbian couple campaigning to challenge powerful Idaho GOP lawmakers (as covered by LGBTQ Nation).
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This Married Lesbian Couple Is Running to Unseat Idaho's Top Conservative Lawmakers
The article reports that Amanda Easley and her wife Karlie Easley, a married lesbian couple, are running together to unseat Idaho’s top conservative lawmakers.
gomag.comRoth -
This year's biggest election could also be November's big wild card
The article discusses Idaho’s Proposition 1, a high-stakes voter measure challenging existing abortion restrictions passed by the Republican Legislature and signed by Gov. Brad Little.
idahoednews.orgRoth -
Opinion: Jim Risch and the Idaho approach to affordability, energy, and security | Psa
Core themes: Affordability, energy independence, rural Idaho priorities, and veterans’ benefits.
Idaho Falls Post RegisterRisch -
Prediction market platform gives Labrador campaign $5,000 amid Idaho betting dispute | Local News
Betting on electionsKalshi provides much more than sports betting. It is a “prediction market” that allows users to bet on how many streams Beyonce will have this year, which team will win Thursday’s NFL game between…
Idaho Press-Tribune
Achilles -
Both candidates in Washington race skeptical of Trump's deal to buy Russian diesel as bipartisan opposition mounts
The article notes bipartisan opposition to President Trump’s deal with Vladimir Putin over Russian diesel, highlighting that six Republicans and six Democrats, including Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, urged rescission.
chronline.comRisch -
Good Baseball Isn't Necessarily Beautiful
The ALCS as a tense, punishing viewing experience rather than easy entertainment.
DefectorRoth -
Voter guide: Catch up here before the big day
Idaho’s seven constitutional officers serve four-year terms. Republicans currently occupy each office.
idahoednews.orgAchilles -
CEI's Future Tech Building: Unlocking New Opportunities for Students (2026)
Jim Risch, U.S. Senator from Idaho, highlights CEI’s Future Tech Building as offering a unique, tailored, and innovative education.
blissunlimited.orgRisch -
Risch, Crapo, Wyden, Merkley Introduce Three-Year Reauthorization of Secure Rural Schools Program
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley co-leads a bipartisan bill reauthorizing the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act (SRS) for three more years.
No story this week names this candidate.
Jim Risch, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi | ||||||
| RJim Risch | 95.4% | 95.9% | 95.4% | 0.5 pts | – | |
| ITodd Achilles (Polymarket) | 4.4% Polymarket only |
4.4% | – | – | – | |
| DDavid Roth | 0.5% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Which candidate wins · Kalshi | ||||||
| ITodd Achilles (Kalshi) | 5.5% Kalshi only |
– | 5.5% | – | – | |
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Candidates & Background
David Roth
Democratic
Idaho realtor who won the 2026 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, then withdrew from the race on July 28, 2026, after a dispute with local party leaders.
Jim Risch
Republican United States Senator from Idaho (since 2009)
Jim Risch, a Republican who has represented Idaho in the U.S. Senate since 2009 and briefly served as governor of Idaho, is running for a fourth term in 2026.
Todd Achilles
Independent Professor of public policy, Boise State University
Todd Achilles is an Army veteran, former technology executive and former Idaho state representative running as an independent against Republican Jim Risch for U.S. Senate in 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi12.7K contracts
Idaho Senate margin of victory
| Risch, 3+ pts | 95.0% | |
| Risch, 5+ pts | 92.3% | |
| Risch, 7+ pts | 87.4% | |
| Risch, 9+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Risch, 11+ pts | 73.0% | |
| Risch, 13+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Risch, 15+ pts | 53.0% | |
| Risch, 17+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Risch, 19+ pts | 31.0% | |
| Risch, 21+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Risch, 23+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Risch, 25+ pts | – | |
| Risch, 27+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Risch, 29+ pts | 8.1% | |
| Risch, 31+ pts | 5.8% | |
| Risch, 33+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Risch, 35+ pts | 4.8% implied | |
| Risch, 37+ pts | 4.6% implied | |
| Risch, 39+ pts | 4.5% implied |
Polymarket$13.1K traded
Idaho Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Independent Wins | 4.3% | |
| Democrat Wins | 2.5% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 4.1% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 10.7% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 20.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 27.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 7.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | – | |
| Republican 30-35% | 5.3% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 2.8% | |
| Republican 40%+ | – |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$142.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
Jim Risch: Counted · bid 95.6% / ask 96.2% · $6.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi403.5K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Jim Risch: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 95.5% · $80.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jim Risch
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Idaho
- Idaho GovernorR97%
- ID-01 HouseR96%
- ID-02 HouseR96%