House · 3 November 2026

LA-03 House 2026

95.5% RRepublican Party leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.5%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 1.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −1.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Republican Party, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRepublican Party	95.5%		95.5%	97.2%	1.7 pts	–
DDemocratic Party	2.6%		3.0%	1.8%	1.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi804 contracts

Louisiana's 3rd District margin of victory

Republicans, 19+ pts		87.2%
Republicans, 22+ pts		80.5%
Republicans, 25+ pts		71.0%
Republicans, 28+ pts		61.5%
Republicans, 31+ pts		50.5%
Republicans, 34+ pts		39.5%
Republicans, 37+ pts		28.5%
Republicans, 40+ pts		19.5%
Republicans, 43+ pts		10.8%
Republicans, 46+ pts		5.7%
Republicans, 49+ pts		7.4% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Republican Party: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $24.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Republican Party: Counted · bid 96.3% / ask 98.0% · $600 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Republican Party

If the House member sworn in for LA-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi