US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MT-01 House.
Appearances from Republican freshmen candidates Kurt Alme, running for Senate, and Aaron Flint, running for the house, resulted in two major revelations: Never before has Montana garnered as many visits from a sitting…
Aaron Flint is the Republican candidate for Montana’s Western District (MT-01) U.S. House seat, running to replace retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke.
Aaron Flint, the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate for Montana’s First Congressional District, clashed with Democrats and Independents over public lands during Oct. 13–15, 2026 debate events in Missoula and Bozeman.
Aaron Flint, a Republican candidate for Montana’s 1st District House seat, is backed by former Interior Secretary and Trump ally Ryan Zinke. Flint is running against Democratic challenger Sam Forstag.
The report covers former President Donald Trump campaigning in Montana’s 1st Congressional District to boost Aaron Flint, a Republican candidate for the U.S. House. Flint is a former aide to retiring Rep.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAaron Flint | 68.6% | 67.5% | 69.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DSam Forstag | 31.9% | 32.5% | 30.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Aaron Flint, a Republican veteran and radio host, is his party's nominee for Montana's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democrat Sam Forstag and Libertarian Nick Sheedy.
Sam Forstag, a Democrat, labor union leader and former smokejumper, is his party's nominee for Montana's open 1st congressional district seat in 2026, facing Republican Aaron Flint and Libertarian Nick Sheedy.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Montana's 1st District margin of victory
| Flint, 1+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Flint, 3+ pts | – | |
| Flint, 6+ pts | 32.0% | |
| Flint, 9+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Flint, 12+ pts | 8.5% | |
| Flint, 15+ pts | 3.4% |
Montana's 1st District margin of victory
| Forstag, 1+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Forstag, 3+ pts | 13.0% | |
| Forstag, 6+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Forstag, 9+ pts | 5.8% implied |
MT-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 12%+ | 2.6% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 3.6% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 6.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 18.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 27.0% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 16.5% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 14.0% | |
| Democrat 6-9% | 7.6% | |
| Democrat 9-12% | 5.1% | |
| Democrat 12%+ | 2.1% |
Prices which party wins.
Aaron Flint: Counted · bid 67.0% / ask 68.0% · $52.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Aaron Flint: Counted · bid 69.0% / ask 70.0% · $64.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Aaron Flint
If the House member sworn in for MT-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
