US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Montana Senate.
Appearances from Republican freshmen candidates Kurt Alme, running for Senate, and Aaron Flint, running for the house, resulted in two major revelations: Never before has Montana garnered as many visits from a sitting…
The candidates for Montana’s U.S. Senate race (clockwise from upper left): independent Seth Bodnar, Democrat Alani Bankhead, Republican Kurt Alme and Libertarian Kyle Austin.
Seth Bodnar (I) is a West Point graduate, Rhodes Scholar, and former Green Beret who served in Iraq. He led the University of Montana from 2018 until January 2026.
He did not mention Seth Bodnar, the independent in the Montana Senate race who is backed by top Democrats in the state.
BodnarIndependent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar enters the Montana Club in Helena on Sept. 29.
Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate candidates. Left to right: Alani Bankhead (D), Kurt Alme (R), Kyle Austin (L), Seth Bodnar (I).
Alani Bankhead, the Montana Democratic Senate candidate, responded to the Montana Democratic Party chair’s resignation to back an independent in the U.S. Senate race.
Kurt Alme is a candidate for the U.S. Senate in Montana. He spoke at a rally at the Flathead Valley Fairgrounds in Kalispell, where former President Trump stumped for Alme and Republican Aaron Flint.
AlmeAlani Bankhead, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, talks during the 48th annual Mansfield Metcalf Dinner on March 7 in Helena.
Kurt Alme is the Republican U.S. Senate candidate referenced in coverage of a Kalispell rally where President Trump urged support for Alme and Aaron Flint. Alme, a former U.S.
AlmeTrump campaigned in Kalispell, Montana, for GOP Senate candidate Kurt Alme and Western U.S. House candidate Aaron Flint.
AlmeKurt Alme is mentioned as a Senate candidate in Arizona (not Montana) who has earned a top rating from the NRA.
AlmeThe page covers Montana Senate candidates’ views on immigration policy, specifically featuring Alani Bankhead (Democrat) and Seth Bodnar (Independent).
BankheadAlani Bankhead, a Democrat candidate in Montana, criticized Alme during the debate over public lands.
BankheadNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi | ||||||
| RKurt Alme | 90.2% | 91.5% | 89.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| IIndependent | 9.0% Polymarket only |
9.0% | – | – | – | |
| DAlani Bankhead | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| Which candidate wins · Kalshi | ||||||
| ISeth Bodnar | 10.8% Kalshi only |
– | 10.8% | – | – | |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Alani Bankhead, a Helena-based leadership coach and Air Force lieutenant colonel, won Montana's 2026 Democratic primary for an open U.S. Senate seat.
Montana lawyer who twice served as U.S. attorney for the District of Montana and is the Republican nominee for the state's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026.
Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president, Army veteran and Rhodes Scholar, is running as an independent for Montana's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Montana Senate margin of victory
| Alme, 5+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Alme, 10+ pts | 41.5% | |
| Alme, 12+ pts | – | |
| Alme, 15+ pts | 28.5% | |
| Alme, 20+ pts | 5.1% | |
| Alme, 25+ pts | 3.2% | |
| Alme, 30+ pts | 3.0% | |
| Alme, 35+ pts | 3.0% | |
| Alme, 40+ pts | 3.0% |
Montana Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 0.1% | |
| Republican 21%+ | 11.4% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 10.5% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 14.0% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 16.2% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 20.5% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 13.8% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | – | |
| Independent 0-3% | 6.7% | |
| Independent 3%+ | 0.6% |
Prices which party wins.
Kurt Alme: Counted · bid 91.0% / ask 92.0% · $32.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Kurt Alme: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 90.0% · $60.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Kurt Alme
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
