US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for VT-AL House.
Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.
Becca Balint (VT-At Large) appeared alongside other lawmakers to support Abdul El-Sayed at a town hall in Ann Arbor, endorsing him as the candidate Michiganders can trust with their earned benefits.
BalintBecca Balint (D) is the incumbent in Vermont’s U.S. House race and will debate Republican challenger Gerald Malloy.
BalintIran and foreign policy: Balint argued the U.S. could have achieved Iran’s nuclear rollback diplomatically under the previous agreement, criticizing the current administration for tearing it up.
BalintGerald Malloy is the Republican candidate running against Democrat Becca Balint in Vermont’s at-large U.S. House District race. Malloy is a retired U.S.
Becca Balint (VT-AL) features in Vermont congressional debate coverage on WCAX. Due to the debate, WCAX’s 6 p.m. news is shortened and the CBS Evening News will air at 6:30 p.m.
BalintNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBecca Balint | 98.2% | 98.3% | 98.2% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RGerald Malloy | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.3 pts | – |
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Becca Balint, a Democrat who has represented Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2023, is seeking a third term in 2026 against Republican Gerald Malloy, a retired military officer.
Gerald Malloy, a Republican retired military officer and the party's U.S. Senate nominee in 2022 and 2024, faces Democratic incumbent Becca Balint for Vermont's at-large U.S. House seat in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Vermont margin of victory
| Balint, 26+ pts | 94.2% implied | |
| Balint, 29+ pts | 95.8% | |
| Balint, 32+ pts | 91.3% | |
| Balint, 35+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Balint, 38+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Balint, 41+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Balint, 44+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Balint, 47+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Balint, 50+ pts | 5.9% |
VT-AL House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 3.0% | |
| Democrat 0-15% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 15-25% | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 12.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 12.3% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 25.0% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | – | |
| Democrat 55%+ | 0.4% |
Prices which party wins.
Becca Balint: Counted · bid 97.2% / ask 99.4% · $377 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Becca Balint: Counted · bid 96.5% / ask 99.8% · $914 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Becca Balint
If the House member sworn in for VT-AL for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
