Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Maryland: Question 3 (redistricting requirements)

66.0% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™ · Kalshi onlyLean Yes

Polymarket: 46.0%
Kalshi: 66.0%
Spread: –
24h: +0.5
7 days: +9.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	66.0% Kalshi only		46.0%	66.0%	–	+0.5

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$122 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Not counted: bid and ask more than 10 pts apart · bid 11.0% / ask 81.0%

Maryland Question 3 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would loosen the requirements for the drawing of federal congressional districts in the State of Maryland, among other measures. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of a Maryland statewide election held on or before November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Maryland, including the Maryland Board of Elections (https://elections.maryland.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.1K contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 70.0% · $70 within 5 pts

If Question 3 passes in Maryland, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi