nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MD-03 House 2026

96.1% DSarah Elfreth leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.5%
Kalshi
96.2%
Spread
0.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.9
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MD-03 House.

Sarah Elfreth, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DSarah Elfreth 96.1% 95.5% 96.2% 0.7 pts –
RBerney Flowers 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Berney Flowers

Republican

Berney Flowers, a Republican and former inter-agency technical advisor for NORAD and USNORTHCOM, is his party's 2026 nominee for Maryland's 3rd congressional district against Democratic incumbent Sarah Elfreth.

Sarah Elfreth

Sarah Elfreth

Democratic U.S. Representative for Maryland's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)

Sarah Elfreth, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 3rd congressional district since 2025 after serving in the Maryland Senate from 2019 to 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Berney Flowers.

Born 1988 · Barrington, New Jersey

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi269 contracts

Maryland's 3rd District margin of victory

Elfreth, 19+ pts
94.5%
Elfreth, 22+ pts
84.5%
Elfreth, 25+ pts
74.0%
Elfreth, 28+ pts
63.5%
Elfreth, 31+ pts
52.5%
Elfreth, 34+ pts
42.0%
Elfreth, 37+ pts
31.5%
Elfreth, 40+ pts
20.5%
Elfreth, 43+ pts
9.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$17.7K traded

MD-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.4%
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Democrat 5-15%
0.2%
Democrat 15-20%
0.4%
Democrat 20-25%
2.4%
Democrat 25-30%
20.4%
Democrat 30-35%
27.1%
Democrat 35-40%
33.5%
Democrat 40-45%
14.8%
Democrat 45%+
2.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$53.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sarah Elfreth: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $86 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Sarah Elfreth: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 98.3% · $646 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Sarah Elfreth

If the House member sworn in for MD-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maryland

  1. Maryland GovernorD97%
  2. MD-01 HouseR87%
  3. MD-02 HouseD96%
  4. MD-04 HouseD98%
  5. MD-05 HouseD96%
  6. MD-06 HouseD96%
  7. MD-07 HouseD97%
  8. MD-08 HouseD97%