Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

Maryland Governor 2026

97.1% DWes Moore leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
97.6%
Kalshi
97.0%
Spread
0.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Maryland Governor.

  1. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore issues directive to strengthen policies against campus sexual assault - CBS Baltimore

    Maryland Governor Wes Moore has signed a directive instructing the state's higher education agency to recommend actions to improve campus sexual assault policies across the state.

    CBS NewsMoore
  2. UMD students discuss decisions behind voting, not voting in upcoming midterm elections

    “At the end of the day, we’re hoping that the people we elect are going to use good judgement and follow through on the things that they said they were going to do,” Hanmer said.

    dbknews.comCox
  3. Deadline to request a mail-in ballot for Nov. 3 midterm elec...

    Gov. Wes Moore (left) and Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox (right) will face off Oct. 6 in a televised debate four weeks ahead of Election Day.

    afro.comCox
  4. Wes Moore orders Maryland campus sexual assault policy review

    Governor Wes Moore directed the Secretary of Higher Education to review and issue recommendations to Maryland universities to improve campus sexual assault policies following national scrutiny at Cornell University over…

    wbal.comMoore
  5. Maryland gubernatorial election | 2026 Voter's Guide

    Sonya Dunn (R) [...] # Maryland gubernatorial election | 2026 Voter’s Guide

More coverage 14
  1. Governor, Dan Cox

    Name: Dan Cox. City / town / neighborhood: Cascade. ×. This page requires Javascript. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content.

    Frederick News-PostCox
  2. Wisconsin's Republican candidate for governor keeps his distance from Trump in nail-biter campaign

    In another attempt to unify Democrats and boost turnout, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore campaigned with Crowley across Wisconsin last week, noting that Crowley is vying to become Wisconsin's first Black governor.

    ABC NewsMoore
  3. Governor Moore Directs MTA To Pause Toll Increases

    (Annapolis, MD) -- Governor Wes Moore has directed the MTA to pause any toll increases for the next year to give Marylanders extra breathing room.

    WEAAMoore
  4. What happened to Howard County Republicans? We asked them.

    Some county conservatives have distanced themselves from the GOP in an effort to gain more ground with voters.

    thebanner.comCox
  5. America is politically polarized. In Maryland, a few purple pockets remain.

    The Banner article discusses Maryland's political landscape, noting that while the state is broadly polarized, only a few purple, swing areas remain.

    thebanner.comCox
  6. Press freedom groups that blasted Trump turn fire on Dem governor over alleged media retaliation

    A coalition of prominent press freedom organizations that have blasted President Donald Trump’s treatment of journalists is now accusing Democratic Maryland Gov.

    wfmd.comMoore
  7. Governor Moore announces pause in state toll increases

    Governor Wes Moore announced has asked the Maryland Transportation Authority to "pause" any increases in tolls for the next year. [...] This content is imported from x.

    WBALMoore
  8. Wes Moore's action on juvenile car thefts deserves applause

    Maryland Gov. Wes Moore should be applauded for issuing a directive to take action on the challenge of juvenile car thefts.

    Baltimore SunMoore
  9. Service United – Fall 2026 Convening - National Governors Association

    Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, chair of the National Governors Association, welcomed workforce, service, and philanthropic leaders from 23 states and territories to Annapolis, Maryland, Oct.

    nga.orgMoore
  10. Governor Moore Announces New Program to Address Key Challenges Faced by Young Men and Boys at Baltimore Banner Impact Summit

    ANNAPOLIS, MD – Governor Moore today announced a new program designed to address key challenges faced by young men and boys by providing parenting supports for fathers.

    governor.maryland.govOfficialMoore
  11. Gov. Candidate Dan Cox Criticizes Key Bridge Rebuild Delays

    Dan Cox, a candidate for Maryland governor, criticizes delays in the Key Bridge rebuild.

    WBFFCox
  12. Afternoon Updates: Harris Misstates Recording Rights; Mosby Charges Dropped; Gun Found at Woodlawn High · HarborBeat

    The article notes that Maryland gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox has pledged to pursue continuous construction on the Key Bridge, criticizing the current state timeline and promising to address regional transportation…

    harborbeat.comCox
  13. Montgomery County early voting opens Oct. 22 at 14 sites

    Dan Cox is the Republican challenger running for Maryland governor in the current election cycle, opposing incumbent Governor Wes Moore and Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller.

    bethesdabeacon.comCox
  14. Moore slammed by press groups, youth car thefts get extra attention

    Dan Cox: Maryland gubernatorial candidate: is referenced in relation to Gov. Wes Moore’s debate coverage.

    newsletters.marylandmatters.orgCox

Wes Moore, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DWes Moore 97.1% 97.6% 97.0% 0.6 pts –
RDan Cox 2.5% 1.9% 2.7% 0.8 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Dan Cox

Dan Cox

Republican

Dan Cox, a lawyer who sat in the Maryland House of Delegates from 2019 to 2023, is again the Republican nominee for governor of Maryland in 2026.

Born 1974 · Washington, D.C.
Wes Moore

Wes Moore

Democratic Governor of Maryland (since 2023)

Wes Moore, a Democrat, Army veteran and author who became governor of Maryland in 2023, is running for a second term in 2026 against Republican Dan Cox.

Born 1978 · Takoma Park, Maryland

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi806 contracts

Maryland Governor margin of victory

Moore, 18+ pts
95.2%
Moore, 21+ pts
93.9%
Moore, 24+ pts
87.5%
Moore, 27+ pts
78.0%
Moore, 30+ pts
67.0%
Moore, 33+ pts
53.0%
Moore, 36+ pts
38.0%
Moore, 39+ pts
24.0%
Moore, 42+ pts
13.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.3K traded

Maryland Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.7%
Democrat 0-10%
4.0%
Democrat 10-15%
4.3%
Democrat 15-20%
6.6%
Democrat 20-25%
15.5%
Democrat 25-30%
17.5%
Democrat 30-35%
21.5%
Democrat 35-40%
18.5%
Democrat 40-45%
6.9%
Democrat 45%+
4.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Wes Moore: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 98.5% · $2.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi66.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Wes Moore: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 98.0% · $20.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Wes Moore

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Maryland pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi