nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MD-06 House 2026

95.8% DApril McClain Delaney leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.6%
Kalshi
95.9%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MD-06 House.

  1. Democrats keep expanding their battleground map. History suggests it’s a mirage

    Florida’s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who has distanced herself from Trump’s deportation policies.

    Washington ExaminerHurdGendebienConstantinoAuringerRomeroJonesDelaney
  2. 6th District in Congress, April McClain Delaney

    The article discusses April McClain Delaney in the context of Maryland's 6th Congressional District.

    Frederick News-PostDelaney
  3. Lawmakers Urge FAA to Pause AI Air Traffic Tool Around…

    A group of U.S. House lawmakers led by Rep. April McClain Delaney (MD-06) is urging the FAA to pause the rollout of SMART, an AI-supported air traffic tool in the Washington, D.C. area.

    nowosci.aiDelaney
  4. Lawmakers Urge FAA to Pause AI Tool Used at D.C.-Area Airports - The Washington Journal

    Lawmakers, including Rep. April McClain Delaney (MD-06), joined Rep. Don Beyer, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Sen. Chris Van Hollen in urging the FAA to pause use of an AI tool at D.C.-area airports.

    thewajournal.comDelaney

April McClain Delaney, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DApril McClain Delaney 95.8% 95.6% 95.9% 0.3 pts –
RRobin Ficker 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 0.2 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

April McClain Delaney

April McClain Delaney

Democratic U.S. Representative for Maryland's 6th congressional district (since 2025)

April McClain Delaney, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 6th congressional district since 2025 and earlier served as deputy administrator of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, faces Republican Robin Ficker in her 2026 re-election race.

Born 1964 · Buhl, Idaho
Robin Ficker

Robin Ficker

Republican

Robin Ficker, a Republican former Maryland state delegate (1979 to 1983) and perennial candidate, is his party's 2026 nominee for Maryland's 6th congressional district against Democratic incumbent April McClain Delaney.

Born 1943 · Takoma Park, Maryland

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi8.0K contracts

Maryland's 6th District margin of victory

Delaney, 3+ pts
96.5%
Delaney, 6+ pts
94.7%
Delaney, 9+ pts
91.5%
Delaney, 12+ pts
82.0%
Delaney, 15+ pts
70.5%
Delaney, 18+ pts
55.0%
Delaney, 21+ pts
42.5%
Delaney, 24+ pts
32.5%
Delaney, 27+ pts
22.0%
Delaney, 30+ pts
11.5%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.3K traded

MD-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5%+
0.5%
Republican 0-5%
0.3%
Democrat 0-5%
5.5%
Democrat 5-10%
2.1%
Democrat 10-15%
19.0%
Democrat 15-20%
–
Democrat 20-25%
25.0%
Democrat 25%+
23.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

April McClain Delaney: Counted · bid 94.3% / ask 96.9% · $1.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.1K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

April McClain Delaney: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 97.7% · $2.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: April McClain Delaney

If the House member sworn in for MD-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maryland

  1. Maryland GovernorD97%
  2. MD-01 HouseR87%
  3. MD-02 HouseD96%
  4. MD-03 HouseD96%
  5. MD-04 HouseD98%
  6. MD-05 HouseD96%
  7. MD-07 HouseD97%
  8. MD-08 HouseD97%