nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MD-07 House 2026

96.9% DKweisi Mfume leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.4%
Kalshi
98.3%
Spread
1.8 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MD-07 House.

  1. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  2. Frenan plan para cerrar centro de investigación en Maryland 2026

    The article discusses a court ruling tied to Maryland politics and notes that Maryland’s congressional delegation: including Representative Kweisi Mfume (MD-07), along with Senators Van Hollen and Alsobrooks and…

    latinopinionbaltimore.comMfume
  3. Turner Station Flood Study Secures $1M Federal Funding and Plans $350M Resilience Projects

    Kweisi Mfume secured a $1 million congressional earmark for Turner Station, MD (MD-07), enabling a flood study and resilience work.

    hyperlocalloop.comMfume

Kweisi Mfume, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DKweisi Mfume 96.9% 96.4% 98.3% 1.8 pts –
RScott Collier 2.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.1 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Kweisi Mfume

Kweisi Mfume

Democratic U.S. Representative for Maryland's 7th congressional district (since 2020)

Kweisi Mfume, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 7th congressional district since 2020 after an earlier tenure from 1987 to 1996 and years as NAACP president, faces Republican Scott Collier in the 2026 election.

Born 1948 · Baltimore, Maryland

Scott Collier

Republican

Scott Collier is the Republican nominee for Maryland's 7th congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Kweisi Mfume in the November 3 general election for the Baltimore-based House seat.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi711 contracts

Maryland's 7th District margin of victory

Mfume, 51+ pts
95.4%
implied
Mfume, 54+ pts
94.8%
implied
Mfume, 57+ pts
95.3%
Mfume, 60+ pts
93.5%
Mfume, 63+ pts
80.5%
Mfume, 65+ pts
71.5%
Mfume, 66+ pts
47.0%
implied
Mfume, 69+ pts
34.5%
Mfume, 72+ pts
16.5%
Mfume, 75+ pts
4.8%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.5K traded

MD-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
Democrat 0-40%
0.1%
Democrat 40-50%
0.1%
Democrat 50-55%
5.4%
Democrat 55-60%
5.2%
Democrat 60-65%
33.0%
Democrat 65-70%
26.5%
Democrat 70-75%
28.0%
Democrat 75-80%
2.5%
Democrat 80%+
1.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kweisi Mfume: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 96.6% · $1.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi463 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Kweisi Mfume: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 99.7% · $658 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Kweisi Mfume

If the House member sworn in for MD-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maryland

  1. Maryland GovernorD97%
  2. MD-01 HouseR87%
  3. MD-02 HouseD96%
  4. MD-03 HouseD96%
  5. MD-04 HouseD98%
  6. MD-05 HouseD96%
  7. MD-06 HouseD96%
  8. MD-08 HouseD97%