nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MD-01 House 2026

87.5% RAndy Harris leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
87.5%
Kalshi
87.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−2.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MD-01 House.

  1. Congressman Harris decries alleged assault, threats following Cambridge debate | Latest News

    CAMBRIDGE, Md. - Congressman Andy Harris has released a condemnation of political violence and intimidation after he says he and his family were threatened and a supporter was allegedly assaulted at a recent candidate…

    WBOCHarris
  2. Jamie Raskin Laughs at GOP Congressman’s Meltdown Over Student Filming Him
    2ParagraphsHarris
  3. Rep. Andy Harris threatens prosecution of student reporter for trying to record him after debate

    A video taken by News4’s partners at The Baltimore Banner shows Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., telling a student reporter from the University of Maryland that she did not have permission to record him and threatening…

    NBC NewsHarrisSchwartz
  4. Maryland's lone GOP House member clashes with 'rude' laughing woman at debate

    Harris, who has represented Maryland's 1st Congressional District since 2010, is running for re-election against Democrat challenger Dan Schwartz.

    Fox NewsHarris
  5. REVISED: Wired Maryland 10/15/26 - by J. Barry O'Connell

    The Cambridge forum didn't end when the microphones were supposed to. After Tuesday night's MD-01 forum at the Chesapeake Grove Intergenerational Center, Rep.

    themarylandwire.comHarris
More coverage 3
  1. Eastern Shore voters weigh in after tense debate confrontation involving Rep. Andy Harris

    Dan Schwartz is the Democratic challenger in Maryland’s 1st Congressional District (MD-01) challenging incumbent Rep. Andy Harris.

    WUSA9.comSchwartz
  2. MD 1st District candidates trade verbal jabs in Cambridge

    In the Maryland-1 race, incumbent Republican Andy Harris and Democratic challenger Dan Schwartz faced off in the lone District 1 congressional debate on Oct.

    baytobaynews.comSchwartz
  3. Maryland Rep. Andy Harris questions student reporter's right to record him after contentious debate - CBS Baltimore

    Representative Andy Harris faced a clash with audience members during a Cambridge debate with Democratic challenger Dan Schwartz.

    CBS NewsSchwartz

Andy Harris, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAndy Harris 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 0.0 pts –
DDan Schwartz 12.8% 12.5% 13.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Andy Harris

Andy Harris

Republican U.S. Representative for Maryland's 1st congressional district (since 2011)

Andy Harris, a Republican physician who has represented Maryland's 1st congressional district since 2011, seeks a ninth term in 2026 against Democrat Dan Schwartz, the winner of a four-candidate Democratic primary.

Born 1957 · Brooklyn, New York

Dan Schwartz

Democratic

Dan Schwartz is the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Andy Harris after winning a four-candidate Democratic primary with 46.3% of the vote.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi10.4K contracts

Maryland's 1st District margin of victory

Harris, 2+ pts
85.5%
Harris, 5+ pts
74.5%
Harris, 8+ pts
60.5%
Harris, 11+ pts
46.0%
Harris, 14+ pts
27.5%
Harris, 17+ pts
18.5%
Harris, 20+ pts
8.6%
Harris, 23+ pts
4.5%
Harris, 26+ pts
6.1%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.7K traded

MD-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+
3.7%
Republican 18-21%
10.0%
Republican 15-18%
20.5%
Republican 12-15%
22.0%
Republican 9-12%
26.5%
Republican 6-9%
13.5%
Republican 3-6%
6.2%
Republican 0-3%
2.7%
Democrat 0-3%
2.6%
Democrat 3%+
4.7%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$88.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Andy Harris: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $5.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi52.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Andy Harris: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $9.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Andy Harris

If the House member sworn in for MD-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Maryland

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  2. MD-02 HouseD96%
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  6. MD-06 HouseD96%
  7. MD-07 HouseD97%
  8. MD-08 HouseD97%