MD-02 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 94.5%
- Kalshi
- 96.6%
- Spread
- 2.1 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.3
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for MD-02 House.
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ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A
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Faster Decisions And Earlier Access: UK Generics Industry Welcomes MHRA’s 2030 Targets
Dave Wallace reports on the UK generics industry's reaction to the MHRA’s 2030 targets, highlighting faster decision-making and earlier market access as key objectives.
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ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News
The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.
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Loyola University Maryland opens renovated community center on York Road
The Loyola University Maryland ceremony for the renovated York Road community center featured remarks from elected officials, including U.S. Rep.
catholicreview.org
Olszewski -
Maryland elections board targeted in suspicious mailings under FBI investigation - CBS Baltimore
Maryland Rep. Johnny Olszewski stated that his office was not targeted by the suspicious mailings investigated by the FBI.
CBS NewsOlszewski
More coverage 1
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Gained In Translation
The article profiles Sergeant Dave Wallace, now stationed in Whitehorse, who continues delivering mail and medication to remote camps beyond Yukon's communities, echoing roles once held by the RCMP in the territory’s…
No story this week names this candidate.
Johnny Olszewski, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJohnny Olszewski | 95.5% | 94.5% | 96.6% | 2.1 pts | – | |
| RDave Wallace | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Dave Wallace
Dave Wallace, a Republican business owner and perennial candidate, is his party's 2026 nominee for Maryland's 2nd congressional district, facing Democratic incumbent Johnny Olszewski in the November 3 general election.
Johnny Olszewski
Johnny Olszewski, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 2nd congressional district since 2025 and was Baltimore County Executive from 2018 to 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Dave Wallace.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi6.1K contracts
Maryland's 2nd District margin of victory
| Olszewski, 14+ pts | 93.0% | |
| Olszewski, 17+ pts | 85.0% implied | |
| Olszewski, 20+ pts | 75.0% implied | |
| Olszewski, 23+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Olszewski, 26+ pts | 61.5% | |
| Olszewski, 29+ pts | 44.5% | |
| Olszewski, 32+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Olszewski, 35+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Olszewski, 38+ pts | 11.9% |
Polymarket$9.4K traded
MD-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-10% | 3.9% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 3.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 12.9% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 29.0% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 14.0% | |
| Democrat 40%+ | 3.1% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$24.6K traded
Prices which party wins.
Johnny Olszewski: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $756 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi4.1K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Johnny Olszewski: Counted · bid 95.4% / ask 97.9% · $709 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Johnny Olszewski
If the House member sworn in for MD-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Maryland
- Maryland GovernorD97%
- MD-01 HouseR87%
- MD-03 HouseD96%
- MD-04 HouseD98%
- MD-05 HouseD96%
- MD-06 HouseD96%
- MD-07 HouseD97%
- MD-08 HouseD97%