MD-08 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.9%
- Kalshi
- 97.6%
- Spread
- 0.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.3
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Live News
Recent coverage for MD-08 House.
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Raskin: Executive Branch Doesn't Have the Power to Compile List of Undocumented Voters
Jamie Raskin (D-MD) argues the executive branch lacks authority to compile or request a list of undocumented/illegal voters.
breitbart.com
Raskin -
Lawmakers 'horrified' by mass shooting plot on Chicago-area Hindu temple
Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Congressman for Maryland's 8th district (MD-08), condemned a mass shooting plot targeting a Chicago-area Hindu temple.
The HillRaskin -
Industry stakeholders are urged to prepare for potential Congressional power shift in 2027
The article notes that U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD), ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, has signaled that if he becomes chairman, he would focus investigations into alleged self-enrichment and…
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Democrats plan investigations, inflation relief if they reclaim Congress
The article outlines House Democrats’ 100-day agenda if they regain the majority, led by Hakeem Jeffries (NY-08).
No story this week names this candidate.
Jamie Raskin, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJamie Raskin | 97.1% | 96.9% | 97.6% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| RCheryl Riley | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Cheryl Riley
Cheryl Riley, a Republican public relations consultant and the party's 2024 nominee for Maryland's 8th congressional district, is again its nominee in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Jamie Raskin on November 3.
Jamie Raskin
Jamie Raskin, a Democrat who has represented Maryland's 8th congressional district since 2017 and serves as ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, faces Republican Cheryl Riley in his 2026 re-election race.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi1.6K contracts
Maryland's 8th District margin of victory
| Raskin, 50+ pts | 96.6% | |
| Raskin, 53+ pts | 87.1% | |
| Raskin, 56+ pts | 76.5% | |
| Raskin, 59+ pts | 66.0% | |
| Raskin, 62+ pts | 54.5% | |
| Raskin, 65+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Raskin, 68+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Raskin, 71+ pts | 21.5% | |
| Raskin, 74+ pts | 10.7% |
Polymarket$16.5K traded
MD-08 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 0-40% | 4.5% | |
| Democrat 40-50% | 3.6% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 6.0% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 32.5% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 31.5% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | – | |
| Democrat 75-80% | – | |
| Democrat 80%+ | 5.4% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$28.0K traded
Prices which party wins.
Jamie Raskin: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 98.3% · $637 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi426 contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Jamie Raskin: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 99.7% · $330 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jamie Raskin
If the House member sworn in for MD-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Maryland
- Maryland GovernorD97%
- MD-01 HouseR87%
- MD-02 HouseD96%
- MD-03 HouseD96%
- MD-04 HouseD98%
- MD-05 HouseD96%
- MD-06 HouseD96%
- MD-07 HouseD97%