Ballot measure · 3 November 2026

Nevada: Question 6 (abortion rights)

95.7% Probability the measure passes TruthIndex™Safe Yes

Polymarket: 99.0%
Kalshi: 94.3%
Spread: 4.6 pts
24h: +0.2
7 days: −0.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 2:28 PM ET

Yes price, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

Prices

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
Yes	95.7%		99.0%	94.3%	4.6 pts	+0.2

Polymarket Kalshi

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Each venue's market

Polymarket$958 traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 98.1% / ask 99.9% · $8 within 5 pts

Nevada voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Question 6) which, if passed, would enshrine the right to abortion in the Nevada Constitution. Under Nevada's constitution, citizen-initiated constitutional amendments must be approved in two successive general elections to take effect. The 2026 vote is the required second and final ratification. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada Question 6, the Right to Abortion Initiative, passes according to Nevada election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Question 6 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Nevada, this market will resolve immediately to "No." If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Nevada, specifically the Nevada Secretary of State (https://www.nvsos.gov).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi157 contracts traded

Prices whether the measure passes.

Yes: Counted · bid 90.0% / ask 98.7% · $20 within 5 pts

If Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative), which would establish a right to abortion in the state constitution in Nevada passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi